The Georgia Basin-Puget Sound Airshed Characterization Report 2014: chapter 13

Figure 13.1 is composed of four panels each with a plot of total global annual CO₂ emissions from all sources (energy, industry, and land-use change) in gigatonnes of carbon per year (GtC/yr) as a function of year from 1990 to 2100. Each panel presents one of the four broad SRES scenario families. In Panel A there is the A1 scenario family including the fossil-fuel intensive A1FI (comprising the high-coal and high-oil-and gas scenarios), the predominantly non-fossil fuel A1T , and the balanced A1B; In Panel B there is the A2 scenario family  (slow technological change);  In Panel C there is the B1 scenario family (rapid changes in economic structure and resource-efficient technologies); and In Panel D there is the B2 scenario family (less rapid but diverse technological change). Plotted in each panel is a coloured emission band which shows the range of scenarios within each group. Six illustrative scenarios are provided, including the four illustrative marker scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2, solid lines) and two illustrative scenarios for A1FI and A1T (dashed lines).

In Panel A the A1FIscenario shows CO₂emissions increasing rapidly from 1990 levels of approximately 8 GtC/yr to approximately 25 GtC/yr in 2050 (range 22-27 GtC/yr) and then leveling slowly by 2080 at approximately 29 GtC/yr (range in coloured emission band is 27-35 GtC/yr). The A1B scenario shows CO₂ emissions increasing slowly from 1990 levels to approximately 17 GtC/yr in 2050 (range in coloured emission band is 13-25 GtC/yr) and then declining slightly by 2100 to approximately 15 GtC/yr (range in coloured emission band is 15-19 GtC/yr).  The A1T scenario shows CO₂ emissions increasing slowly from 1990 levels to approximately 12 GtC/yr in 2040 (range 10-12 in coloured emission band is GtC/yr) and then declining by 2100 to approximately 5 GtC/yr (range in coloured emission band is 5-10 GtC/yr).

In Panel B the A2 scenario shows CO₂ emissions increasing quite steadily from 1990 levels of approximately 8 GtC/yr to approximately 29 GtC/yr in 2100. At the low emission end of the range of scenarios within emissions remain steady from 1990 to 2030 and then rise to approximately 22 GtC/yr in 2100. At the high emission end of the range of scenarios emissions in 2100 are approximately 35 GtC/yr.

In Panel C the B1 scenario shows CO₂ emissions increasing slightly from 1990 levels of approximately 8 GtC/yr to approximately 12 GtC/yr in 2040 (range in coloured emission band is 9-18 GtC/yr) and then declining by 2100 to approximately 5 GtC/yr (range in coloured emission band is 2-11 GtC/yr).

In Panel D the B2 scenario shows CO₂ emissions increasing quite steadily from 1990 levels of approximately 8 GtC/yr to approximately 12 GtC/yr in 2100. This is close to the low emission end of the range of scenarios. At the high emission end of the range of scenarios emissions in 2100 are approximately 22 GtC/yr.

Figure 13.2 is composed of two panels.  In Panel A changes in radiative forcing relative to pre-industrial conditions are shown as a function of year from 2000 to 2100. Bold coloured lines show the four selected RCPs; thin lines show individual scenarios from approximately 30 candidate RCP scenarios that provide information on all key factors affecting radiative forcing from van Vuuren et al. (2008) and the larger set analysed by IPCCWorking Group III during development of the Fourth Assessment Report (Fisher et al., 2007). The four selected RCPs are MESSAGE 8.5, AIM 6.0, GCAM 4.5, and IMAGE 2.6.  MESSAGE 8.5 represents the most extreme change in radiative forcing, rising steadily from a change of approximately 2 W/m² in 2000 to a change of approximately 8.5 W/m² in 2100. AIM 6.0 shows a more moderate change in radiative forcing, rising steadily from a change of approximately 2 W/m² in 2000 to a change of approximately 6 W/m² in 2100.  GCAM 4.5 rises steadily to a change of approximately 4 W/m² in 2060 and then levels off from 2070 onwards around 4.5 W/m².  IMAGE 2.6 shows the most modest increase in radiative forcing for 2100 relative to pre-industrial condition.  It rises to a change of just above 3 W/m² in 2040 and then falls steadily to a change of approximately 2.6 W/m² by 2100. The individual scenarios from the approximately 30 candidate RCPscenarios all fall within the range defined by MESSAGE 8.5 and IMAGE 2.6.

Panel B shows energy and industry CO₂ emissions relative to pre-industrial conditions (in Gt) for the RCP candidates as a function of year from 2000 to 2100. The range of emissions in the post-SRES literature is presented for the maximum and minimum (thick dashed curve) and 10^th to 90^th percentile (shaded area). A blue shaded area corresponds to mitigation scenarios, a grey shaded area corresponds to reference scenarios, and a pink area represents the overlap between reference and mitigation scenarios.  The maximum line starts at approximately 35 Gt in 2000 and goes above the plot maximum of 120 Gt in 2050.  The minimum line starts at just above 20 Gt in 2000 and declines to approximately -15 Gt in 2100.  The 90^th percentile line runs from approximately 25 Gt in 2000 to just over 100 Gt in 2100.  The 10^th percentile line runs from approximately 25 Gt in 2000 to just above 0 Gt in 2100.  The blue shaded area (mitigation scenarios) extends from the 10^th percentile line up to a line that rises slowly from approximately 25 Gt in 2000 to just over 30 Gt in 2040 and then falls to approximately 20 Gt in 2100.  The pink shaded area (overlap between reference and mitigation scenarios) extends from the upper edge of the blue shaded area to a line that rises slowly from approximately 25 Gt in 2000 to just over 40 Gt in 2045 then falls to approximately 30 Gt in 2100.  The grey shaded area (reference scenarios) extends from the upper edge of the pink shaded area to a line that rises from approximately 25 Gt in 2000 to approximately 110 Gt in 2100.  The bold grey line representing MESSAGE 8.5 rises steadily from approximately 25 Gt in 2000 to approximately 90 Gt in 2065 and then shows some signs of leveling off, reaching approximately 100 Gt by 2100.  The bold blue line representing AIM 6.0 rises slowly from approximately 25 Gt in 2000 to approximately 30 Gt in 2035 and then rises more rapidly to approximately 60 Gt in 2080. After 2080 it declines to approximately 45 Gt by 2100. The bold red line representing GCAM 4.5 rises slowly from approximately 25 Gt in 2000 to approximately 40 Gt in 2030 and remains at that level until 2050, after which time it falls to 15 Gt by 2080 and remains at that level through 2100.  The bold green line representing IMAGE 2.6 rises from approximately 25 Gt in 2000 to approximately 30 Gt in 2020 and then falls to -5 Gt by 2100. MESSAGE 8.5 and AIM 6.0 fall within the grey shaded area, GCAM 4.5 starts in the pink shaded area, but falls into the blue shaded area by 2065, and IMAGE 2.6 starts in the blue area but falls below it by 2040.

Figure 13.3 is a map of North America overlaid with the downscaling domains used for WRF regional simulations.  Domain 1 is the entire map area which extends from the approximately the arctic circle to the equator and encompasses much of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.  As described in the text, the outermost WRF domain (Domain 2) covers nearly the entire North American continent (from SE Alaska and Hudson Bay in the north to the Yucatán Peninsula in the south) as well as much of the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western Atlantic Ocean. The 36 km model domain (HadRM) covers the western continental U.S. and part of Canada and Mexico. The innermost model domain (Domain 3) is centered on the Pacific Northwest that includes the states of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Also indicated on the map is shading representing terrain height (0-3000m) for the corresponding WRF and HadRM domain.

Figure 13.4 is a line map of North America, the Pacific, and eastern Asia colored by the 50 year projection of summertime surface temperature change (average of 2048 and 2045 minus average of 1996 and 1997).  Also drawn on the map is the hemispheric domain used with WRF and CMAQ to account for the impact of Asian and other large scale impacts upon chemical boundary conditions for the continental U.S. This domain spans an area bounded in the north by a line running between Vancouver Island and Haida Gwaii, passing north of Lake Winnipeg, and reaching the Gulf of St Lawrence.   It is bounded in the south by a line running from the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, across Mexico to Cuba.  The area immediately offshore of the US Pacific and Atlantic coasts is also included in the domain. 

The 50 year projection of summertime surface temperature change is between 1 and 4°C over much of the map area.  Exceptions include regions in the Sea of Okhotsk, in the Bering Sea, in the northern Gulf of Alaska, and in the Great Lakes with changes of 6-8°C.  Other exceptions are India, the Pacific Northwest of North America, the northern Canadian Prairies, Newfoundland, and the equatorial Pacific which have changes on the order of 0 to -3°C.  The average for the hemispheric domain used with WRF and CMAQ is 1.34°C while the US-Domain average is 1.85°C.

There is a note that the figure accounts for U.S. chemical boundary conditions and the change in surface temperatures for summertime conditions for the warmest future and current summers from decadal periods of 2045-2054 and 1995-2004. (ECHAM5-A1B model/scenario combination).

Figure 13.5 is composed of two panels.  Each is a map of the continental US colored with red or green to indicate isoprene emission factors.  Red indicates lower EFs and green indicates higher EFs. The left map shows the emission factor (EF) distribution for a present biogenic isoprene emission scenario.  In this scenario green (higher EF) covers the eastern US from Maine to Louisiana and extending north to Missouri, Kentucky and Ohio.   Also colored green is Wisconsin, Minnesota, and North Dakota. 

The left map shows the emission factor (EF) distribution for a future biogenic isoprene emission scenario.  In this scenario the green (higher EF) occurs over much the same area with the exception of some green areas now occurring around Colorado, Wyoming, and eastern California.  New areas of red include regions of the east coast and throughout southern Florida.
There is a note that changes in spatial distribution reflect expansion of cropland (lower isoprene emissions) in the future. 

Figure 13.6 is composed of three panels each of which shows a line map of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho marked with squares which are sized to indicate annual mean model biases of Tmax (°C) at Historical Climatology Network stations in these three states.  Panel A shows the biases for WRF Domain 2, panel B shows the biases for WRF Domain 3, and panel C shows the biases for HadRM.  There is a note that the figure is based on ECHAM5-A1B model/scenario combination, evaluated using years 1970-2000.

In Panel A (WRF Domain 2) biases on the order of -0.5 to 0.5°C occur along the east side of Puget Sound and at stations closer to the coast.  Larger negative biases of -1.0 to -2.0°C occur in eastern Washington, along the eastern Columbia River, and in southern Idaho.

In Panel B (WRF Domain 3) biases on the order of -0.5 to 0.5°C also occur along the east side of Puget Sound and at stations closer to the coast.  Again, larger negative biases of -1.0 to -2.0°C occur in eastern Washington, along the eastern Columbia River, and in southern Idaho.

In Panel C (HadRM) biases on the order of -0.5 to 0.5°C occur at most stations. Exceptions are larger negative biases from -1.5 to -2.5°C that occur in southeastern Idaho and just south of Astoria, Oregon.  Positve biases on the order of 1.0 to 1.5°C occur at the central Oregon/Idaho border and near Portland. 

Figure 13.7 is composed of three panels each of which shows a line map of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho marked with squares which are sized to indicate annually averaged model biases of precipitation (mm) at Historical Climatology Network stations in these three states.  Panel A shows the biases for WRF Domain 2, panel B shows the biases for WRF Domain 3, and panel C shows the biases for HadRM.  There is a note that the figure is based on ECHAM5-A1B model/scenario combination, evaluated using years 1970-2000.

In Panel A (WRF Domain 2) biases on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 mm occur along the east side of Puget Sound and at stations closer to the coast.  Larger wet biases on the order of 1.5 to 3.0 mm occur for almost all of the stations in central and eastern Washington, eastern and southern Oregon, and in southern Idaho.

In Panel B (WRF Domain 3) wet biases are also observed for all stations although these are generally smaller in magnitude.  Biases on the order of 0 to 0.5 mm occur along the east side of Puget Sound and at stations closer to the coast.  Inland stations have biases on the order of 1.0 to 1.5 mm with the exception of some biases on the order of 2.5 to 3.0 mm in southeastern Idaho.

In Panel C (HadRM) biases along the borders of Oregon and Washington and over the northern part of Idaho are fairly evenly distributed over the range of -0.5 to 0.5 mm.  In southern Oregon and Idaho larger wet biases of 1.5 to 3.0 mm occur.  In northern Washington there are wet biases on the order of 1.0 to 1.5 mm.

Figure 13.8 is composed of three panels.  In the top left is a box plot of modelled and observed daily maximum 8 hour ozone for seven regions in the continental US.  The modelled results are based upon climatological downscaling of ECHAM5 meteorology with WRF and CMAQ at 36 km grid resolution for the U.S. during summertime conditions (June-Aug) for five representative summers in the current decadal period 1995 - 2004. Observations were taken from the AQS national network of ozone monitors (locations shown on a map in the bottom left panel) and results are shown by geographic region (indicated on a map in the bottom right panel).

The seven geographic regions follows indicated on the map in the bottom right panel are as follows.

• Northwest region made up of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho;
• Southwest region made up of California, Nevada, and Arizona;
• Central region made up of Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota;
• South region made up of New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana;
• Midwest region made up of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, and Wisconsin;
• Southeast region made up of Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee;
• Northeast region made up of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania.

The data shown in the box plot for the modelled and observed daily maximum 8 hour ozone for the seven regions are as follows. 

Northwest region: Observed median of approximately 38 ppb, modelled median of approximately 41 ppb, observed interquartile range of approximately 30-50 ppb, modelled interquartile range of approximately 35-50 ppb, observed range of approximately 15-72 ppb, modelled range of approximately 25-75 ppb.

Southwest region: Observed median of approximately 55 ppb, modelled median of approximately 60 ppb, observed interquartile range of approximately 40-70 ppb, modelled interquartile range of approximately 50-72 ppb, observed range of approximately 5-102 ppb, modelled range of approximately 35-105 ppb.

Central region: Observed median of approximately 55 ppb, modelled median of approximately 55 ppb, observed interquartile range of approximately 45-62 ppb, modelled interquartile range of approximately 48-61 ppb, observed range of approximately 25-80 ppb, modelled range of approximately 35-80 ppb.

South region: Observed median of approximately 50 ppb, modelled median of approximately 58 ppb, observed interquartile range of approximately 35-60 ppb, modelled interquartile range of approximately 50-70 ppb, observed range of approximately 28-90 ppb, modelled range of approximately 30-110 ppb.

Midwest region: Observed median of approximately 50 ppb, modelled median of approximately 70 ppb, observed interquartile range of approximately 42-63 ppb, modelled interquartile range of approximately 58-83 ppb, observed range of approximately 25-92 ppb, modelled range of approximately 40-122 ppb.

Southeast region: Observed median of approximately 52 ppb, modelled median of approximately 65 ppb, observed interquartile range of approximately 42-68 ppb, modelled interquartile range of approximately 55-75 ppb, observed range of approximately 23-100 ppb, modelled range of approximately 30-105 ppb.

Northeast region: Observed median of approximately 50 ppb, modelled median of approximately 70 ppb, observed interquartile range of approximately 38-64 ppb, modelled interquartile range of approximately 58-70 ppb, observed range of approximately 18-105 ppb, modelled range of approximately 40-135 ppb.

Table 13.1 gives a summary of current ozone and projected changes for the US.

The first row of the table contains the headers “Regions”, “CD_Base”, “A1B_Base”, “A1B_US”, “A1B_BC”, “A1B_Met”, “A1B_M” and “A1B_M_LU”.  There is a note that CD_Base is the measured ambient ozone level for all sites in a given region. Columns to the right of CD-Base are difference results {future case - base case} for future case model simulations as described in the text. Current base case is for period 1995-2004; future case is for period 2045-2054 

The first column gives the regions.  These are as follows:

• Northwest
• Southwest
• Central
• South
• Midwest
• Southeast
• Northeast

The remaining columns give the ozone values for each region in each scenario. The values are listed in the format XX(YY) where XX is the value for the 98^th percent daily maximum ozone and YY is the value for the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone.  These are as follows:

• Northwest: CD_Base: 73(43); A1B_Base: 2(1); A1B_US: -2(0); A1B_BC: 2(3); A1B_Met: -7(-1); A1B_M: 1(-1); A1B_M_LU: 2(-1)
• Southwest CD_Base: 106(62); A1B_Base: -4(0); A1B_US: -6(4); A1B_BC: 3(5); A1B_Met: -3(0); A1B_M: 0(0); A1B_M_LU: -3(-1)
• Central CD_Base: 80(54); A1B_Base: 5(4); A1B_US: -5(-2); A1B_BC: 3(5); A1B_Met: 6(3); A1B_M: 7(2); A1B_M_LU: 8(2)
• South CD_Base: 107(60); A1B_Base: 3(6); A1B_US: -2(-2); A1B_BC: 1(4); A1B_Met: 1(5); A1B_M: 5(5); A1B_M_LU: 4(5)
• Midwest 123(72); A1B_Base: 6(4); A1B_US: -5(-3); A1B_BC: 1(2); A1B_Met: 8(6); A1B_M: 13(6); A1B_M_LU: 10(6)
• Southeast 103(66); A1B_Base: -2(1); A1B_US: -10(-5); A1B_BC: 1(2); A1B_Met: 7(6); A1B_M: 7(5); A1B_M_LU: 8(5)
• Northeast 135(75); A1B_Base: 4(2); A1B_US: -9(-5); A1B_BC: 1(1); A1B_Met: 7(6); A1B_M: 16(7); A1B_M_LU: 15(7)

The table and maps show that overall for the A1B future case, the peak ozone (as represented by the 98^th percentile by region) slightly increases in the west, but increases by more (up to 7 ppbv) in the central and eastern portion of the U.S. These changes are the result of the combined effects of increases in ozone due to increasing chemical boundary conditions offset by decreases in ozone due to decreasing U.S. emissions. Depending on the region the result is perturbed either up or down and varies by changes in climate, biogenic emissions, and land use. In the western U.S., climatic effects (meteorology plus biogenic emissions) produce a slight increase in peak ozone values while larger increases are modelled in other parts of the U.S. due to warmer temperatures and the associated effects on atmospheric reactions and biogenic emissions.  Land use effects associated with expanded croplands tend to slightly offset the increases associated with climate effects alone. 

It should be recognized that the results presented here are for one modelling configuration and one IPCC future scenario. As illustrated in the synthesis provided by Weaver et al. (2009), it is clear that different modelling systems and different scenarios can lead to quite different results.  Thus, there is a need to continue to build an ensemble of modelling results for future conditions to account for both uncertainty and diversity in modelling approaches, as well as the range of possible trajectories for global change.

Figure 13.9 is composed of two panels. On the left is a line map of the continental US including southern Canada and northern Mexico and on the right is a line map of the Pacific Northwest including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, northern California and Nevada, western Montana, and southeastern British Columbia. Both maps are colored by the change in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone levels levels for the A1B cumulative effects minus the current decade base case.  The color scale ranges from -18 to 18 ppbv.

In the left panel (continental US) most areas have changes in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone levels in the 1-8 ppbv range. Exceptions occur at the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula and across central Mexico where changes are on the order of 12 to 18 ppbv. The area around New Orleans and smaller areas around New York City, Boston, and Los Angeles also have changes in the 12 to 18 ppbv range.  In general, the east coast from North Carolina to Nova Scotia has changes in the -1 to -6 ppbv range.  Also in this range are the coasts of Georgia and northern Florida, the northeastern corner of Alabama, the central border of North and South Carolina, central California, and the west coast from Los Angeles, to central Washington.

In the right panel most of the inland regions of the Pacific Northwest have changes in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone levels in the 1-8 ppbv range.  The east side of Puget Sound and the lower Fraser Valley also have changes in the 1-8 ppbv range.  The Olympic Peninsula and Vancouver Island have changes in the -1 to 1 ppbv range (no change).  The very southern tip of Puget Sound and all coastal areas from Wilapa Bay south have changes in the -1 to -6 ppbv range.

Figure 13.10 is composed of two panels. On the left is a line map of the continental US including southern Canada and northern Mexico and on the right is a line map of the Pacific Northwest including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, northern California and Nevada, western Montana, and southeastern British Columbia. Both maps are colored by the change in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone levels for the A1B chemical boundary conditions case minus the current decade base case.  The color scale ranges from -18 to 18 ppbv.

In the left panel (continental US) almost all areas have changes in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone between 2 and 8 ppbv.  The northeastern US and Canada east of the Great Lakes have changes on the order of 1-2 ppbv.  The only notable exception is the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula and across central Mexico where changes are on the order of 12 to 18 ppbv.

In the right panel the entire Pacific Northwest has changes in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone levels in the 2-8 ppbv range. 

Figure 13.11 is composed of two panels. On the left is a line map of the continental US including southern Canada and northern Mexico and on the right is a line map of the Pacific Northwest including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, northern California and Nevada, western Montana, and southeastern British Columbia. Both maps are colored by the change in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone levels for the A1B US emissions case minus the current decade base case.  The color scale ranges from -18 to 18 ppbv.

In the left panel (continental US) most of the US has changes in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone between 2 and 8 ppbv between 0 and -6 ppbv.  Exceptions include the east coast north of Cape Hatteras, central North Carolina, eastern South Carolina, and northern Georgia which have changes on the order of -6 to -10 ppbv.  A small strip through central Florida and along the southwest coast of that state also has changes on the order of -6 to -10 ppv.  A section of California extending to the east and south of San Francisco has changes on the order of -6 to -8 ppbv. Areas with positive changes include the region around Los Angeles (changes of 2 to 6 ppbv) and the area around Puget Sound (described in more detail below).  Most of Mexico has no change in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone with the exception of th eastern shore of the Sea of Cortez and some of central Mexico which have changes of 1 to 4 ppbv. Most of Canada also has no change in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone with the exception of an area along the Alberta/Saskatchewan border and the Georgia Basin which have changes on the order of 1 to 4 ppbv.

In the right panel (showing the Pacific Northwest) most of southwestern British Columbia has no change in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone.  The exceptions are the lower Fraser Valley and the Strait of Georgia which have changes of 1 to 4 ppbv.   Northern Washington, Montana, and Idaho as well as the Pacific coast north of Portland also show no change in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone. The eastern side of Puget Sound has changes of 1 to 6 ppbv while the remainder of the US area has changes of -1 to -6 ppbv.

Figure 13.12 is divided into two parts.  The top section (section a) shows change in summertime daily maximum 8 hr ozone levels for the A1B meteorology + biogenic emissions minus current decade base case (A1B_M - CD_Base), and the bottom section (section b) shows change in summertime daily maximum 8 hr ozone levels for the A1B meteorology + biogenic emissions + land use cases minus the current decade base case (A1B_M_LU - CD_Base).  Each of the two sections is composed of two panels. On the left in each case is a line map of the continental US including southern Canada and northern Mexico and on the right is a line map of the Pacific Northwest including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, northern California and Nevada, western Montana, and southeastern British Columbia.  In both cases the maps are colored by the change in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone levels on a color scale ranging from -18 to 18 ppbv.

In the left panel (continental US) of the top section (A1B_M - CD_Base) it can be seen that the Pacific coast and offshore waters north of Los Angeles show changes in in summertime daily maximum 8-hr ozone on the order of -1 to -6 ppbv. Northeastern California, Arizona, Idaho and eastern Washington and Oregon have no change in ozone levels while most of the remainder of the US has changes on the order of 1 to 8 ppbv.  Some exceptions are around New York City, Boston, Detroit, Chicago, and New Orleans where changes are on the order of 8 to 18 ppbv.  Most of Mexico has changes on the order of 1 to 4 ppbv.  In southern Canada most areas see no change with the exception of southwestern British Columbia which has changes on the order of -1 to -4 ppbv and the areas around Lake Winnipeg and the Great Lakes which have changes on the order of 1-6 ppbv.

In the right panel (Pacific Northwest) of the top section the entire coastal region and most of southwestern Bristish Columbia have changes on the order of -1 to -4 ppbv.  The remainder of the area sees no change.

The expected changes in summertime daily maximum 8 hr ozone levels for the A1B_M_LU - CD_Base case (bottom section) is very similar to the expected changes for the A1B_M - CD_Base case (top section).  Minor differences include a slightly smaller area showing increases in southern California and some larger increases (8-18 ppbv) around Tampa and Miami.  In the Pacific Northwest the picture is also almost identical with just slightly larger decreases occurring over central and northern Vancouver Island (-2 to -4 ppbv versus -1 to -2 ppbv).

Figure 13.13 is a conic projection map of North America extending from 15°N to the North Pole and including Greenland, Cuba, and the Chukchi Peninsula in Russia. A dashed rectangle indicating the AURAMS-CRCM grids is bounded by a line that runs from the Kotzebue Sound area of northwestern Alaska, across the Arctic Ocean, to the Atlantic Ocean off of Newfoundland at approximately 45°N and 45°W. It then runs south to the Caribbean between Cuba and Jamaica and west to the Pacific Ocean at approximately 28°N and 130°W. The CRCM topography field is also shown.  This reflects the true continental topography and extends from 0 to 3500 m above sea level.

Table 13.2 gives the performance statistics for AURAMS-CRCM for ozone in the current climate.

The first row of the table contains the headers “Metric”, “R2”, “R”, “Slope”, “Intercept”, “Mean Bias”, “Root Mean Square Error”, “Normalized Mean Bias”, and “Normalized Mean Error”.  The first row lists the ozone metrics that were evaluated.  These are as follows:

• Minimum
• Maximum
• Mean
• 4^th highest maximum
• Lowest 10^th percentile
• Highest 10^th percentile
• Highest 98^th percentile
• Canada-Wide Standard
• NAAQS
• Standard Deviation

The remaining columns give the numerical value of each performance statistic given in the headers for each of the ozone metrics.

Table 13.3 gives the performance statistics for AURAMS-CRCM for PM_2.5 in the current climate.

The first row of the table contains the headers “Metric”, “R2”, “R”, “Slope”, “Intercept”, “Mean Bias”, “Root Mean Square Error”, “Normalized Mean Bias”, and “Normalized Mean Error”.  The first row lists the PM_2.5 metrics that were evaluated.  These are as follows:

• Minimum
• Maximum
• Mean
• 4^th highest maximum
• Lowest 10^th percentile
• Highest 10^th percentile
• Highest 98^th percentile
• Canada-Wide Standard
• NAAQS
• Standard Deviation

The remaining columns give the numerical value of each performance statistic given in the headers for each of the PM_2.5metrics.

Figure 13.14 is composed of four panels each containing a map of North America covering an area from the tip of the Baja Peninsula to the Arctic Ocean.  In each, the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grids (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by temperature in degrees Celsius.

In Panel A the ten year average Current Climate (1997-2006) lowest model layer mean summer temperature is shown. The temperature scale ranges from -5 to 34°C.  Temperatures are between -5°C and 6°C in the Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay, as well as in much of Alaska, the Yukon Territory, and in northwestern British Columbia.  The remainder of Canada (including the Georgia Basin) has temperatures in the range of 6 to 14°C.  In the northwestern US temperatures range from 6 to 17°C, while in the southwest they range from 14 to 32°C.  The central and southeastern US also has temperatures in the range of 14 to 32°C with the temperature generally increasing from northwest to southeast.  The northeastern US has temperatures in the range of 14 to 21°C.

In Panel B the change in average summer temperature [Future average - current average] is shown.  The scale ranges from 0.1 to 2.4°C.  Northern Canada, the Maritimes, and the British Columbia coast have changes on the order of 0.1 to 1.5°C.  Central Canada, including southeastern BC and northern Ontario, has changes on the order of 1.5 to 2.1°C.  In the US temperature changes range from 1.5 to 2.4°C with the smallest changes at the coasts and the largest changes in the central areas, particularly in the northern Midwest states.

In Panel C the ten year average summer 98^thpercentile lowest model layer temperature is shown.  The temperature scale ranges from 1 to 40°C.  Temperatures are between 1°C and 12°C in the Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bays well as much of Alaska, the Yukon Territory and northwestern British Columbia.  The remainder of Canada (including the Georgia Basin) has temperatures in the range of 12 to 23°C.  In the northwestern US temperatures range from 12 to 23°C while in the southwest they range from 23 to 34°C.  The central and southeastern US also has temperatures in the range of 23 to 38°C with the temperature generally increasing from northwest to southeast.  The northeastern US has temperatures in the range of 19 to 27°C.

In Panel D the change in 98^th percentile summer temperature is shown.  The scale ranges from -0.5 to 3.3°C.  In this case northwestern British Columbia and the Yukon have the smallest changes, on the order of -0.5 to 1.5°C.  The remainder of Canada, including the eastern Arctic, has changes on the order of 1.5 to 2.2°C with isolated patches showing changes up to 3.3°C.  In the US the Midwest and northeastern states have changes on the order of 1.8 to 3.3°C while the remainder of the US has changes on the order of 1.1 to 2.6°C. As noted in the text, the pattern of increases in 98^th percentile summer temperatures is very spatially inhomogeneous

Figure 13.15 is composed of four panels each containing a map of North America covering an area from the tip of the Baja Peninsula to the Arctic Ocean.  In each, the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grids (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by specific humidity in units of 103 kg/kg.

In Panel A the ten year average Current Climate (1997-2006) lowest model layer mean summer specific humidity is shown. The humidity scale ranges from 2.9 to 23.3 x 103 kg/kg.  In British Columbia and most of the Canadian Territories the humidity is 2.9 to 7 x 103 kg/kg. The exception is the western end of the Northwest Territory where humidity is 7.0 to 9.1 x 103 kg/kg.  In the rest of Canada humidity is also 7.0 to 9.1 x 103 kg/kg, except for the very southern prairies and southern Ontario, where humidity is 9.1 to 11.1 x 103 kg/kg.  In the western US humidity is spatially inhomogeneous but ranges from 5.0 to 13.2 x 103 kg/kg.  In the Midwest and northeastern US humidity also ranges from 5.0 to 13.2 x 103 kg/kg with an increasing trend from north to south.  In the south central and southeastern US humidity ranges fdrom 15.2 to 23.4 x 103 kg/kg with the highest humidity in the areas around the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.

In Panel B the change in average specific humidity [Future average - current average] is shown. The scale ranges from -0.38 to 1.9 x 103 kg/kg.    Changes in Canada are generally in -0.14 to 0.79 x 103 kg/kg range with southern Manitoba and southern Ontario having changes in the 0.79 to 1.2 x 103 kg/kg range. In the US the changes are very inhomogeneous but are generally in the range of 0.79 to 1.8 x 103 kg/kg.  The largest increases are seen in Florida, Texas, and scattered throughout the southeastern states.

In Panel C the ten year average summer 98^thpercentile lowest model layer specific humidity is shown. The humidity scale ranges from 4.2 to 25.8 x 103 kg/kg.  In British Columbia and most of the Canadian Territories the humidity is 4.2 to 10.7 x 103 kg/kg with the western end of the North West Territory having humidity in 10.7 to 12.8 x 103 kg/kg range.  In the rest of Canada humidity is in the range of 10.7 to 17.2 x 103 kg/kg.  In the western US humidity is spatially inhomogeneous but ranges from 4.2 to 17.2 x 103 kg/kg.  In the Midwest and northeastern US humidity also ranges from 15.0 to 21.5 x 103 kg/kg with an increasing trend from north to south.  In the south central and southeastern US humidity ranges fdrom 17.2 to 23.7 x 103 kg/kg with a small section in the 23.7 to 25.8 x 103 kg/kg range along the Texas Gulf Coast.

In Panel D the change in 98^th percentile specific humidity [Future average - current average] is shown. The scale ranges from -0.86 to 3.1 x 103 kg/kg.    Changes throughout the continent are inhomogeneous, but in Canada they are generally in -0.07 to 1.9 x 103 kg/kg range with southern Manitoba and the Quebec/Ontario border having changes in the 1.9 to 2.3 x 103 kg/kg range. In the US the changes are generally in the range of 1.1 to 2.3 x 103 kg/kg.  The largest increases are seen in the Midwest and southern Florida from 2.3 to 3.1 x 103 kg/kg.

Figure 13.16 is composed of four panels each containing a map of North America covering an area from the tip of the Baja Peninsula to the Arctic Ocean.  In each the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grids (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by boundary layer height in meters.

In Panel A the ten year average Current Climate (1997-2006) lowest model layer mean summer boundary layer height is shown. The scale ranges from 149 to 1050 m.  Along the Pacific, Arctic, and Atlantic coasts, as well as over the Great Lakes boundary layer height ranges from 149 to 348 m.  For most of British Columbia, the Canadian Arctic, and the northern prairies, Ontario, and Quebec boundary layer height ranges from 248 to 448 m. Over the remainder of Canada it ranges from 448 to 647 m. For the northeastern, midwestern, and most of the southeastern US, boundary layer height also ranges from 448 to 647 m.  This is also the case for the northwestern US and California.  The area east of California extending to Nebraska, Kansas and Texas in the east and south to the Mexican border has boundary layer heights in the range of 647 to 1050 m. 

In Panel B the change in average boundary layer height [Future average - current average] is shown.  The scale ranges from -133 to 87 m.  For much of the continent changes are in the range of -26 to -1 m. Increases of 21 to 65m occur in eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, northwestern Ontario, and just west of Great Slave Lake in the Northwest Territory.  Increases of 21 to 65m also occur to the south of Lake Michigan and throughout much of the southeastern US.  Increase of 45 to 87 m occur around along the coast of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, as well as in southern Florida, the Gulf coast of Louisiana and Mississippi and in southern Texas. A decrease of -45 to -111 m occurs over Colorado.

In Panel C the ten year average summer 98^thpercentile boundary layer height is shown. The scale ranges from 93 to 1650 m.  Along the most of the Pacific and Arctic coasts boundary layer height ranges from 93 to 559 m.  In the central British Columbia coast it ranges from 559 to 715m.  For most of British Columbia, the Canadian Arctic, and the northern prairies, Ontario, and Quebec boundary layer height ranges from 559 to 870 m. Over the Maritimes it ranges from 870 to 1340 m. Over the remainder of Canada it ranges from 870 to 1030 m. In the northwestern US including California it ranges from 559 to 1030 m . Throughout most of the Midwest and northeast it ranges from 715 to 1030 m, with the exception of New England where it ranges from 870 to 1340 m.   The area east of California extending to Florida in the east and south to the Mexican border has boundary layer heights in the range of 1030 to 1650 m. 

In Panel D the change in 98^th percentile boundary layer height is shown.  The scale ranges from -210 to 208 m.  Changes in 98^th percentile boundary layer height are very inhomogeneous, but in general the western half of the continent sees decreases on the order of 0 to -84 m, with isolated patches seeing decreases up to -168 m. In the eastern Canadian Prairies and in the eastern and southeastern US increases on the order of 0 to 84 m occur, with isolated patches seeing increases of up to 168 m.

Figure 13.17 is composed of four panels each containing a map of North America covering an area from the US/Mexico border to the Arctic Ocean.  In each the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grids (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by ozone concentration in ppbv.

In Panel A the ten year average (current climate, current emissions) lowest model layer mean summer daily maximum 8 hour average ozone is shown. The scale ranges from 10 to 100 ppbv.  All of Canada except for a thin strip along the US border and reaching up into central Alberta has ozone concentrations of 20 to 30 ppbv.  Along the border and up into central Alberta concentrations ozone concentrations are 30 to 40 ppbv, except for a patch in south-central Alberta where concentrations are 40 to 50 ppbv. In the northwestern US ozone concentrations are 30 to 50 ppbv. In the southwest they range from 40 to 60 ppbv, except in southern California where they reach as high as 80 ppbv. In the central US ozone concentrations are 40 to 60 ppbv. In the east from Illinois to the Atlantic ozone concentrations are from 50 to 80 ppbv with small patches near Atlanta and Chicago in the 80 to 100 ppbv range.

In Panel B the change in ozone concentration [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -4 to 10 ppbv.  In this scenario most of Canada sees changes in the -2 to 0 ppbv range.  Southern British Columbia, the south and central prairies, and southern Ontario and Quebec see changes in the 0 to 2 ppbv range. Most of the western half of the US sees changes of -1 to 2 ppbv with the exception of the Los Angeles to San Diego corridor which has changes of 4 to 10 ppbv and the area around San Francisco which has changes of 4 to 6 ppbv. In the eastern half of the US changes are on the order of 2 to 4 ppbv except around Chicago and Detroit where changes as high as 10 ppbv occur.

In Panel C the change in O₃ [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -45 to 65 ppbv. In this scenario much of the eastern US, from Illinois to Florida to Massachusetts, sees ozone concentration decreases of -35 to -15 ppbv.  Most of the remainder of the US sees decreases of -15 to -5 ppbv with decreases of -5 to 0 ppbv along the Mexican border.  In Canada decreases of -15 to -5 ppbv are expected along the US border with decreases of -5 to 0 ppbv further north.

Panel D shows the same scenario as in Panel B, but with the same color scale as in Panel C (-45 to 65 ppbv). In this case almost all of the US, Southern British Columbia, the south and central prairies, and southern Ontario and Quebec see increases of 0 to 5 ppbv.  The exceptions are the areas around Los Angeles, Chicago, and Detroit which have increases of 15 to 25 ppbv.   The remainder of Canada sees changes of 0 to -5 ppbv.

Figure 13.18 is composed of four panels each containing a map of North America covering an area from the US/Mexico border to the Arctic Ocean.  In each the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grids (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by PM_2.5concentration in µg/m³.

In Panel A the ten year average (current climate, current emissions) lowest model layer mean summer daily average PM_2.5concentration is shown. The scale ranges from 0 to 28 µg/m³. Over most of the continent PM_2.5 concentration is in the 0 to 6 µg/m³ range.  Exceptions are the Los Angeles - San Diego corridor which has concentrations from 10 to 28 µg/m³ and the states east of Illinois (except Florida) which have concentrations of 6 to 18 µg/m³. In addition the Gulf of St Lawrence has concentrations of 6 to 10 µg/m³.

In Panel B the change in PM_2.5 [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -1.0 to 1.8 µg/m³.  In this scenario much of the US east of Illinois has increases of 0.6 to 1.2 µg/m³. The area around Los Angeles also has increases of 0.6 to 1.2 µg/m³.  Large increases of >1.0 µg/m³ occur throughout most of the southern half of Hudson Bay.  Decreases of -0.2 to -0.8 µg/m³occur in the mouth of the Gulf of St Lawrence.  Most of the remainder of the continent sees lower magnitude increases of 0.2 to 0.6 µg/m³.

In Panel C the change in PM_2.5 [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -11 to 8 µg/m³.   Much of the continent sees modest changes of -1 to 2 µg/m³, however, the much of the eastern US coast and the area south of Lake Erie sees decreases ranging of  -3 to -7 µg/m³and decreases of up to -10 µg/m³ in some areas. Decreases of up to -10 µg/m³ are also seen around San Diego and Tampa.  Increases of up to 8 µg/m³ occur at Chicago, Los Angeles, the north Okanagan in British Columbia.

Panel D shows the same scenario as in Panel B, but with the same color scale as in Panel C (-11 to 8 µg/m³). In this case the entire continent is colored almost homogenously with changes from -1 to 2 µg/m³.

Figure 13.19 is composed of six rows each containing three panels. In each panel is a map of North America covering an area from the US/Mexico border to the Arctic Ocean.  In each map the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grid (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by PM_2.5 concentration in µg/m³.  In each row of maps a different chemical component of PM_2.5 is shown.  The first map shows differences in 10 year average summer particle mass from that component for the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario, the second represents differences for the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario, and the third is the same scenario as the first, but plotted with the color scale of the second.

The first row of maps shows changes in sulfate PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.4 to 0.6 µg/m³.  Most of the continent sees changes on the order of -0.1 to 0.1 µg/m³.  The area between Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Great Lakes has changes on the order of 0.1 to 0.3 µg/m³ as does the east coast of the US between Massachusetts and Delaware and the central part of Florida.  In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -6.0 to 1.0 µg/m³.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -0.5 to 0.5 µg/m³.   However, the US east of line between Lake Superior and Texas see decreases from -0.5 to -4.0 with some small isolated areas around Pittsburgh seeing decreases up to -6.0 µg/m³.    The largest decreases occur between Ohio and the Chesapeake Bay. In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the entire continent is nearly homogenously colored and is in the -0.5 to 0.5 µg/m³ range.

The second row of maps shows changes in ammonium PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.12 to 0.20 µg/m³.  Most of the continent sees changes on the order of -0.02 to 0.02 µg/m³.  Some exceptions include the area between Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Great Lakes which is inhomogeneous, but has large areas with changes of 0.02 to 0.10 µg/m³.  Coastal New Jersey and the area around New York City also have changes of 0.02 to 0.10 µg/m³. Significant decreases, on the order of -0.04 to -0.12 occur just south of Cape Hatteras, in northeastern Texas, in central Colorado, in southwestern California, and in southern Alberta. In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -2.4 to 1.0 µg/m³.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -0.2 to 0.2 µg/m³.   However, the area between Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Great Lakes has changes on the order of -1.2 to -1.4 µg/m³, with local changes of up to -2.4 µg/m³ near Pittsburgh and Philidelphia. Decreases of up to -2.4 µg/m³ also occur very locally around San Diego. In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the entire continent is nearly homogenously colored and is in the -0.6 to 0.2 µg/m³ range.

The third row of maps shows changes in nitrate PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.4 to 0.6 µg/m³.  Most of the continent sees changes on the order of -0.01 to 0.01 µg/m³.  Exceptions are the area around New York City, Southern Ontario, the eastern Midwest States, southwestern California, and small areas around Denver, New Orleans, and scattered sporadically throughout the inland eastern US which have changes on the order of -0.1 to -0.4 µg/m³.  In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -6.4 to 4.0 µg/m³.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -0.5 to 0.5 µg/m³.   However, the area around Ohio and Indiana, coastal New Jersey, and eastern Puget Sound have changes on the order of -2.0 to -3.5 µg/m³. The immediate area around San Diego and Cleveland have decreases of greater than -4.0 µg/m³. The very local area around Los Angeles has increases of 1.5 to 4.0 µg/m³. In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the entire continent is nearly homogenously colored and is in the -0.5 to 0.5 µg/m³ range.

The fourth row of maps shows changes in secondary organic aerosol PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.1 to 1.4 µg/m³.  Most of Canada and the western US sees changes on the order of 0 to 0.2 µg/m³.  Exceptions are the interior of northern California and southern Oregon, most of Ontario and Manitoba, northeastern Saskatchewan, and some smaller patches in the north-central US which have changes on the order of 0.2 to 0.5 µg/m³.  The US east of a line between Lake Superior and Texas has changes on the order of 0.2 to 0.7 µg/m³with the magnitude of the change increasing from west to east, but declining again right along the coast.  A corridor through North Carolina and Tennesee has changes on the order of 0.9 to 1.4 µg/m³.  In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.6 to 0.7 µg/m³.  In this scenario northern Canada, the area west of Saskatchewan, and Quebec see changes on the order of -0.2 to 0.1 µg/m³.  The southern US west of Texas also sees changes on the order of -0.2 to 0.1 µg/m³.  Most of Ontario, Manitoba, and northeastern Saskatchewan see changes of 0.1 to 0.3 µg/m³.  The US north of 40°N also sees changes of 0.1 to 0.3 µg/m³.  Changes’ of 0.2 to 0.5 µg/m³ occur in the inland regions of the eastern US.In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the US east of a line between Lake Superior and Texas, and excluding Florida and New England, sees increases of 0.3 to 0.7 µg/m³ and appears dark red in color. The interior of northern California and southern Oregon also appears dark red and sees changes on the order of 0.2 to 0.6 µg/m³.  Most of Ontario, Manitoba, and northeastern Saskatchewan see changes of 0.2 to 0.5 µg/m³.

The fifth row of maps shows changes in elemental carbon PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.03 to 0.08 µg/m³.  Almost all of the continent is colored in only two shades and has changes on the order of -0.01 to 0.01 µg/m³.  The exception is the area immediately around Los Angeles, which has changes on the order of 0.04 to 0.07 µg/m³. In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.45 to 0.15 µg/m³.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -0.05 to 0.05 µg/m³.   However, the areas immediately surrounding Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Diego, Houston, Chicago, Minneapolis, Detroit, Philadelphia, New York City, Atlanta, St Louis, and Indianapolis see changes of -0.4 to -0.2 µg/m³. In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the entire continent is nearly homogenously colored and is in the -0.05 to 0.05 µg/m³range.

The sixth row of maps shows changes in primary organic aerosol PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.08 to 0.18 µg/m³.  Almost all of the continent is colored in only two shades and has changes on the order of -0.02 to 0.02 µg/m³.  There are some patches south of the Great Lakes as far south as Tennesee which have changes of 0.02 to 0.06 µg/m³.  The area immediately around Los Angeles has changes of 0.08 to 0.18 µg/m³.  In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -1.0 to 1.4 µg/m³.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -0.02 to 0.02 µg/m³.   However, the areas immediately surrounding Chicago and Los Angeles see changes of 0.4 to 1.0 µg/m³. In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the entire continent is nearly homogenously colored and is in the -0.2 to 0.2 µg/m³ range.

Figure 13.19 is composed of six rows each containing three panels. In each panel is a map of North America covering an area from the US/Mexico border to the Arctic Ocean.  In each map the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grid (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by PM_2.5 concentration in µg/m³.  In each row of maps a different chemical component of PM_2.5 is shown.  The first map shows differences in 10 year average summer particle mass from that component for the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario, the second represents differences for the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario, and the third is the same scenario as the first, but plotted with the color scale of the second.

The first row of maps shows changes in sulfate PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.4 to 0.6 µg/m³.  Most of the continent sees changes on the order of -0.1 to 0.1 µg/m³.  The area between Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Great Lakes has changes on the order of 0.1 to 0.3 µg/m³ as does the east coast of the US between Massachusetts and Delaware and the central part of Florida.  In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -6.0 to 1.0 µg/m³.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -0.5 to 0.5 µg/m³.   However, the US east of line between Lake Superior and Texas see decreases from -0.5 to -4.0 with some small isolated areas around Pittsburgh seeing decreases up to -6.0 µg/m³.    The largest decreases occur between Ohio and the Chesapeake Bay. In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the entire continent is nearly homogenously colored and is in the -0.5 to 0.5 µg/m³ range.

The second row of maps shows changes in ammonium PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.12 to 0.20 µg/m³.  Most of the continent sees changes on the order of -0.02 to 0.02 µg/m³.  Some exceptions include the area between Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Great Lakes which is inhomogeneous, but has large areas with changes of 0.02 to 0.10 µg/m³.  Coastal New Jersey and the area around New York City also have changes of 0.02 to 0.10 µg/m³. Significant decreases, on the order of -0.04 to -0.12 occur just south of Cape Hatteras, in northeastern Texas, in central Colorado, in southwestern California, and in southern Alberta. In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -2.4 to 1.0 µg/m³.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -0.2 to 0.2 µg/m³.   However, the area between Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Great Lakes has changes on the order of -1.2 to -1.4 µg/m³, with local changes of up to -2.4 µg/m³ near Pittsburgh and Philidelphia. Decreases of up to -2.4 µg/m³ also occur very locally around San Diego. In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the entire continent is nearly homogenously colored and is in the -0.6 to 0.2 µg/m³ range.

The third row of maps shows changes in nitrate PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.4 to 0.6 µg/m³.  Most of the continent sees changes on the order of -0.01 to 0.01 µg/m³.  Exceptions are the area around New York City, Southern Ontario, the eastern Midwest States, southwestern California, and small areas around Denver, New Orleans, and scattered sporadically throughout the inland eastern US which have changes on the order of -0.1 to -0.4 µg/m³.  In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -6.4 to 4.0 µg/m³.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -0.5 to 0.5 µg/m³.   However, the area around Ohio and Indiana, coastal New Jersey, and eastern Puget Sound have changes on the order of -2.0 to -3.5 µg/m³. The immediate area around San Diego and Cleveland have decreases of greater than -4.0 µg/m³. The very local area around Los Angeles has increases of 1.5 to 4.0 µg/m³. In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the entire continent is nearly homogenously colored and is in the -0.5 to 0.5 µg/m³ range.

The fourth row of maps shows changes in secondary organic aerosol PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.1 to 1.4 µg/m³.  Most of Canada and the western US sees changes on the order of 0 to 0.2 µg/m³.  Exceptions are the interior of northern California and southern Oregon, most of Ontario and Manitoba, northeastern Saskatchewan, and some smaller patches in the north-central US which have changes on the order of 0.2 to 0.5 µg/m³.  The US east of a line between Lake Superior and Texas has changes on the order of 0.2 to 0.7 µg/m³with the magnitude of the change increasing from west to east, but declining again right along the coast.  A corridor through North Carolina and Tennesee has changes on the order of 0.9 to 1.4 µg/m³.  In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.6 to 0.7 µg/m³.  In this scenario northern Canada, the area west of Saskatchewan, and Quebec see changes on the order of -0.2 to 0.1 µg/m³.  The southern US west of Texas also sees changes on the order of -0.2 to 0.1 µg/m³.  Most of Ontario, Manitoba, and northeastern Saskatchewan see changes of 0.1 to 0.3 µg/m³.  The US north of 40°N also sees changes of 0.1 to 0.3 µg/m³.  Changes' of 0.2 to 0.5 µg/m³ occur in the inland regions of the eastern US.In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the US east of a line between Lake Superior and Texas, and excluding Florida and New England, sees increases of 0.3 to 0.7 µg/m³ and appears dark red in color. The interior of northern California and southern Oregon also appears dark red and sees changes on the order of 0.2 to 0.6 µg/m³.  Most of Ontario, Manitoba, and northeastern Saskatchewan see changes of 0.2 to 0.5 µg/m³.

The fifth row of maps shows changes in elemental carbon PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.03 to 0.08 µg/m³.  Almost all of the continent is colored in only two shades and has changes on the order of -0.01 to 0.01 µg/m³.  The exception is the area immediately around Los Angeles, which has changes on the order of 0.04 to 0.07 µg/m³. In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.45 to 0.15 µg/m³.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -0.05 to 0.05 µg/m³.   However, the areas immediately surrounding Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Diego, Houston, Chicago, Minneapolis, Detroit, Philadelphia, New York City, Atlanta, St Louis, and Indianapolis see changes of -0.4 to -0.2 µg/m³. In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the entire continent is nearly homogenously colored and is in the -0.05 to 0.05 µg/m³range.

The sixth row of maps shows changes in primary organic aerosol PM_2.5.  In the first map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -0.08 to 0.18 µg/m³.  Almost all of the continent is colored in only two shades and has changes on the order of -0.02 to 0.02 µg/m³.  There are some patches south of the Great Lakes as far south as Tennesee which have changes of 0.02 to 0.06 µg/m³.  The area immediately around Los Angeles has changes of 0.08 to 0.18 µg/m³.  In the second map the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown. The scale is from -1.0 to 1.4 µg/m³.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -0.02 to 0.02 µg/m³.   However, the areas immediately surrounding Chicago and Los Angeles see changes of 0.4 to 1.0 µg/m³. In the third map the [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario is shown again, this time on the color scale used for the second map. In this case the entire continent is nearly homogenously colored and is in the -0.2 to 0.2 µg/m³ range.

Figure 13.20 is composed of four panels each containing a map of North America covering an area from the US/Mexico border to the Arctic Ocean.  In each the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grids (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by OH concentration in ppbv x 104.

In Panel A the ten year average (current climate, current emissions) lowest model layer mean summer daily average OH concentration is shown. The scale ranges from 0 to 3 ppbv x 104. Most of Canada has OH concentrations in the 0 to 0.6 ppbv x 104 range.  In the Lower Fraser Valley, through the southeastern half of Alberta, in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and in Southern Ontario concentrations are in the 0.6 to 1.6 ppbv x 104 range.  In the US the OH concentration distribution is very inhomogeneous.  The lowest concentrations (0.2 to 0.8 ppbv x 104) are concentrated in the northwest and southeast while the highest concentrations (1.6 to 2.8 ppbv x 104) occur in the south central region. However, concentrations are extremely variable in all areas.

In Panel B the change in OH concentration [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -1.2 to 2.8 ppbv x 104. Again the distribution of changes is very inhomogeneous, however much of Canada has OH concentration changes in the -0.4 to 0.4 ppbv x 104 range. The southeastern half of Alberta, and the very southern tip of Ontario have changes on the order of 0.4 to 1.4 ppbv x 104. In the western US changes are generally on the order of -0.2 to 0.6 ppbv x 104, with the exception of Los Angeles which sees changes of 1.2 to 2.8 ppbv x 104. In the south central US changes are generally on the order of -0.8 to 0.2 ppbv x 104 with higher positive changes of up to 2.8 ppbv x 104 immediately over cities and slightly higher changes positive changes of 0.2 to 0.8 ppbv x 104 in the plains regions.  In the eastern US changes are generally on the order of -0.8 to 0.2 ppbv x 104 again with larger positive changes over the cities.

In Panel C the change in OH concentration [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -1.3 to 1.2 ppbv x 104.   In this scenario most of Canada has changes in the -0.2 to 0.2 ppbv x 104 range, except for in the Lower Fraser Valley, through the southeastern half of Alberta, in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and in Southern Ontario where changes in the -0.8 to -0.2 ppbv x 104 range are seen. In the US changes are very spatially inhomogeneous, but generally fall between -0.6 and 0.2 ppbv x 104, with small isolated patches with changes of -1.2 to -0.6 ppbv x 104.   The major exceptions are Los Angeles, San Francisco, Albuquerque, and Detroit which have changes on the order of 0.2 to 1.0 ppbv x 104.    
Panel D shows the same scenario as in Panel B, but with the same color scale as in Panel C. In this case the entire continent is colored almost homogenously with changes from -0.2 to 0.4 ppbv x 104.

In the above formula, the concentrations of NO₂ and O₃ are in units of ppbv, and the concentration of PM_2.5 is in mg/m³.

Figure 13.21 has three panels all with box and whisker plots of Air Quality Health Index (AQHI). 

Panel A shows data for the western Canadian towns of Whitehorse, Victoria , Vancouver , Yellowknife, Kamloops, Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge, Saskatoon, Regina, and Winnipeg. The y-axis ranges from an AQHI of 0 to 5.  The data presented are as follows. 

Whitehorse (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.4, mean approximately 1.4, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.3-1.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.9-2. Whitehorse (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.35, mean approximately 1.35, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.2-1.45, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.8-1.9. Whitehorse (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.35, mean approximately 1.35, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.2-1.45, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.7-1.9.

Victoria (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.5, mean approximately 1.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.3-1.7, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.8-3.1. Victoria (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.5, mean approximately 1.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.3-1.7, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.8-3.1. Victoria (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.3, mean approximately 1.35, 25-75 percentile range approximately 0.95-1.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.7-2.1.

Vancouver (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.1, mean approximately 2.2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.7-2.7, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.3-4. Vancouver (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.2, mean approximately 2.3, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.7-2.8, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.3-4.3. Vancouver (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.6, mean approximately 1.65, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.4-1.9, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.9-2.7.

Yellowknife (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.2, mean approximately 1.2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1-1.4, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.6-1.8.Yellowknife (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.2, mean approximately 1.2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 0.95-1.4, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.6-1.8. Yellowknife (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1, mean approximately 1, 25-75 percentile range approximately 0.8-1.3, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.5-1.7.

Kamloops (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.5, mean approximately 1.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 0.2-0.9, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.5-2.6. Kamloops (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.5, mean approximately 1.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 0.2-0.9, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.5-2.6. Kamloops (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.45, mean approximately 1.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 0.2-0.7, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.6-2.7.

Calgary (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.5, mean approximately 2.6, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.1-3.2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.5-4.6. Calgary (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.5, mean approximately 2.6, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.1-3.2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.5-4.7.  Calgary (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1. 5, mean approximately 1.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.3-1.9, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.9-2.5.

Edmonton (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.0, mean approximately 2.1, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.5-2.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.0-3.7. Edmonton (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.0, mean approximately 2.1, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.5-2.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.0-3.9. Edmonton (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.5, mean approximately 1.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.1-1.9, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.7-2.9.

Lethbridge (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.7, mean approximately 1.7, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.4-2.1, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.9-2.9. Lethbridge (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.7, mean approximately 1.7, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.4-2.1, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.9-2.9. Lethbridge (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.4, mean approximately 1.4, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.0-1.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.6-2.1.

Saskatoon (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.6, mean approximately 1.6, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.3-2.0, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.6-2.8. Saskatoon (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.6, mean approximately 1.6, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.3-2.0, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.6-2.8.  Saskatoon (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.4, mean approximately 1.4, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.0-1.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.6-2.1.

Regina (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.7, mean approximately 1.7, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.45-2.1, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0. 8-2.9. Regina (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.7, mean approximately 1.75, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.5-2.15, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.8-3.0.  Regina (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.4, mean approximately 1.4, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.0-1.6, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.5-2.2.

Winnipeg (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 2, mean approximately 2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.5-2.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.8-3.5. Winnipeg (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 2, mean approximately 2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.5-2.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.8-3.5.  Winnipeg (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.5, mean approximately 1.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.2-1.8, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.5-2.5.

Panel B shows data for the eastern Canadian towns of Thunder Bay, Windsor, Sarnia , Sudbury, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, Fredericton, St John, Halifax, Charlottetown and St Johns. The y-axis ranges from an AQHI of 0 to 10.  The data presented are as follows. 

Windsor (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 4, mean approximately 4.2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 3.1-5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.8-8.5. Windsor (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 4.1, mean approximately 4.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 3.2-5.3, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.8-9.5.  Windsor (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 3.8, mean approximately 3.9, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.0-3.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.0-5.5.

Sarnia (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 3.3, mean approximately 3.6, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.5-4.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.2-8.3. Sarnia (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 3.5, mean approximately 3.9, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.5-4.8, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.2-9.5.  Sarnia (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 2.4, mean approximately 2.6, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.6-3.2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.9-5.8.

Hamilton and Toronto see very similar AQHIs for all scenarios.  For these cities the values are as follows. Current climate and current emissions, median approximately 3.0, mean approximately 3.2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.1-4.1, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.1-6.3. Future climate and current emissions, median approximately 3.1, mean approximately 3.3, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.1-4.4, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.1-6.8.  Future climate and RCP 6 emissions, median approximately 2.0, mean approximately 2.2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.5-2.7, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.8-4.1.

Thunder Bay, Quebec City, Fredericton, St John, Halifax, Charlottetown and St Johns see very similar AQHIs for all scenarios.  For these cities the values are as follows. Current climate and current emissions, median approximately 1.5 to 1.6, mean approximately 1.6 to 1.8, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.0-2.2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.5-4.0. Future climate and current emissions, median approximately 1.5 to 1.6, mean approximately 1.6 to 1.8, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.0-2.2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.5-4.2.  Future climate and RCP 6 emissions, median approximately 1.0 to 1.5, mean approximately 1.1 to 1.6, 25-75 percentile range approximately 0.8-1.7, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.4-2.7.

Sudbury, Ottawa, and Montreal see very similar AQHIs for all scenarios.  For these cities the values are as follows. Current climate and current emissions, median approximately 1.9 to 2.0, mean approximately 2.0 to 2.2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.3-2.8, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.5-5.0. Future climate and current emissions, median approximately 1.9 to 2.1, mean approximately 2.0 to 2.2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.4-2.9, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.5-5.1.  Future climate and RCP 6 emissions, median approximately 0.3, mean approximately 0.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 0.9-1.7, 2-98 percentile range approximately 0.5-3.2.

Panel C shows data for the American cities of Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia, and New York. The y-axis ranges from an AQHI of 0 to 14.  The data presented are as follows. 

Los Angeles (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 5.2, mean approximately 5.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 4.5-6.8, 2-98 percentile range approximately 3-9. Los Angeles (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 5.8, mean approximately 5.9, 25-75 percentile range approximately 4.8-7, 2-98 percentile range approximately 3-10.  Los Angeles (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 4.8, mean approximately 5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 3.5-6.2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 2.2-8.9.

San Diego (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 3.7, mean approximately 3.9, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.9-4.9, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.9-7.5. San Diego (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 3.9, mean approximately 4.1, 25-75 percentile range approximately 3-5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.9-8.3.  San Diego (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 2.7, mean approximately 3, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2-3.3, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1-5.

Phoenix (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.2, mean approximately 2.3, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1-2.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.5-3.7. Phoenix (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.2, mean approximately 2.3, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.8-2.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.5-3.6.  Phoenix (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.8, mean approximately 1.9, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.6-2.2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.3-3.

San Antonio (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.9, mean approximately 1.9, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.5-2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1-3. San Antonio (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 1.9, mean approximately 1.9, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.5-2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1-3.  San Antonio (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.7, mean approximately 1.8, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.5-1.9, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1-2.5.

Dallas (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.5, mean approximately 2.7, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2-3, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.5-4.5. Dallas (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.5, mean approximately 2.7, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2-3, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.5-4.5. Dallas (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 1.9, mean approximately 1.9, 25-75 percentile range approximately 1.7-2.1, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1-3.

Houston (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.8, mean approximately 3, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.5-3.2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 2-5.8. Houston (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 2.8, mean approximately 3, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.5-3.2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 2-5.7. Houston (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 2.3, mean approximately 2.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2-2.8, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.8-4.

Chicago (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 4.9, mean approximately 5.1, 25-75 percentile range approximately 3.6-5.9, 2-98 percentile range approximately 2-10. Chicago (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 5, mean approximately 5.4, 25-75 percentile range approximately 3.8-6.1, 2-98 percentile range approximately 2-12. Chicago (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 3, mean approximately 3.3, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2.2-3.9, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1-7.

Philadelphia (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 4.5, mean approximately 4.9, 25-75 percentile range approximately 3.3-3.7, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.9-8.5. Philadelphia (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 4.5, mean approximately 5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 3.3-5.8, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1.9-9. Philadelphia (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 3, mean approximately 3.4, 25-75 percentile range approximately 2-3.8, 2-98 percentile range approximately 1-6.

New York (current climate and current emissions), median approximately 5.5, mean approximately 6, 25-75 percentile range approximately 4.2-7.2, 2-98 percentile range approximately 2.8-12. New York (future climate and current emissions), median approximately 5.7, mean approximately 6.2, 25-75 percentile range approximately 4.3-7.5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 2.8-13. New York (future climate and RCP 6 emissions), median approximately 4, mean approximately 4.5, 25-75 percentile range approximately 3-5, 2-98 percentile range approximately 2-9.

Figure 13.22 is composed of four panels each containing a map of North America covering an area from the US/Mexico border to the Arctic Ocean.  In each the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grids (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by sulphur deposition in tonnes/summer.

In Panel A the ten year average (current climate, current emissions) lowest model layer mean summer total sulphur deposition is shown. The scale ranges from 0 to 2200 tonnes/summer.  Most of the continent has deposition on the order of 0 to 400 tonnes/summer. There are small isolated spots in the Calgary-Edmonton corridor, near Fort McMurray Alberta, in northern Saskatchewan, and in eastern Ontario where deposition is on  the order of 600 to 1000 tonnes/summer. The northeastern US in an area south of a line between Detroit and New York City and north of the Kentucky/Tennessee border has deposition on the order of 600 to 1600 tonnes/summer. Small isolated patches with deposition is on the order of 600 to 1000 tonnes/summer also occur in the southeastern US

In Panel B the change in sulphur deposition [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -125 to 75 tonnes/summer.  In this scenario most of the continent sees changes in the -25 to 25 tonnes/summer range.  Exceptions are the Calgary-Edmonton corridor, near Fort McMurray Alberta, just north of Lake Winnipeg, and some isolated areas in the southeastern US which have changes of -100 to -50 tonnes/summer. Around Lake Erie and at the Head of the Chesapeake Bay changes are on the order of 25 to 75 tonnes/summer.

In Panel C the change in sulphur deposition [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -1600 to 400 tonnes/summer. In this scenario most of the continent sees changes in the -100 to 0 tonnes/summer range. The eastern US sees changes of -300 to -800 tonnes/summer with some small patches, such as the area around Pittsburgh, seeing changes of -700 to -1500 tonnes/summer. Changes of -300 to -800 tonnes/summer occur in central Alberta, along the Seattle-Vancouver corridor,  near Fort McMurray Alberta, just north of Lake Winnipeg, and at Los Angeles.

Panel D shows the same scenario as in Panel B, but with the same color scale as in Panel C. In this case almost the entire continent appears nearly homogeneous in color with changes of -200 to 100 tonnes/summer

Figure 13.23 is composed of four panels each containing a map of North America covering an area from the US/Mexico border to the Arctic Ocean.  In each the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grids (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by nitrogen deposition in tonnes/summer.

In Panel A the ten year average (current climate, current emissions) lowest model layer mean summer total nitrogen deposition is shown. The scale ranges from 0 to 1500 tonnes/summer.  Most of Canada has deposition on the order of 0 to 300 tonnes/summer.  Exceptions are the Seattle-Vancouver corridor, the Calgary-Edmonton corridor, and Southern Ontario where deposition is on the order of 400 to 900 tonnes/summer.  Most of the western US also has deposition on the order of 0 to 300 tonnes/summer, with exceptions at Puget Sound, Portland, San Francisco, and Los Angeles where deposition is  on the order of 400 to 900 tonnes/summer.  In the north-central and northeastern US from Nebraska to the Atlantic deposition is on the order of 400 to 900 tonnes/summer. Isolated spots with deposition of  400 to 900 tonnes/summer also occur at Tampa, Houston, and New Orleans.

In Panel B the change in nitrogen deposition [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -200 to 200 tonnes/summer.  In this scenario almost all of the continent sees changes in the -40 to 40 tonnes/summer range.  One exception occurs at Los Angeles where changes of 40 to 200 tonnes/summer occur.

In Panel C the change in nitrogen deposition [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -800 to 2400 tonnes/summer. In this scenario most of the continent sees nitrogen deposition decreases by between 0 to 200 tonnes/summer. Decreases of -200 to -700 tonnes/summer occur around New York City and along the coast of New Jersey, in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Southern Ontario, around Chicago, and at Tampa, New Orleans, Houston, and Seattle. Very localized increases of 400 to 1000 tonnes/summer occur around Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, and Montreal.

Panel D shows the same scenario as in Panel B, but with the same color scale as in Panel C. In this case almost the entire continent appears nearly homogeneous in color with changes of -200 to 200 tonnes/summer.

Figure 13.24 is composed of three panels each containing a map of North America covering an area from the US/Mexico border to the Arctic Ocean.  In each the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grids (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by changes in nitrogen deposition (in tonnes N/summer) for the [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] scenario. In all three cases the scale ranges from -3000 to 3000 tonnes/summer.

The first panel shows the contributions from wet deposition of NH₄. Much of the continent has changes of -10 to 10 tonnes/summer. However, increases on the order of 50 to 500 tonnes/summer occur in the Vancouver-Seattle corridor and extending down into central Washington, in the inland areas of California, in southern Idaho, in a wide band stretching from northeastern Minnesota to west Texas, in the Chicago-Detroit corridor, and stretching through Kentucky and Tennessee and up along the east coast of the US.  Increases on the order of 80 to 1000 tonnes/summer occur in the Calgary-Edmonton corridor and around Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, and Detroit.

The second panel shows the contributions from dry deposition of gaseous NH₃. Changes in this case are less dramatic with most of the continent the -10 to 10 tonnes/summer range. Small areas with increases of 50 to 500 tonnes/summer occur in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, and Detroit. They also occur in southern Idaho, and sporadically along the east coast and inland eastern areas of the US.  A slightly larger patch occurs in central California.

The third panel shows the contributions from Wet deposition of NO₃^-. In this case trhe eastern half of the US from Missouri to Georgia and north to the Canadian border has decreases on the order of -50 to -300 tonnes/summer. Florida, San Diego, New Orleans, Houston, southern Alberta, and the Lower Fraser Valley-Puget Sound area also see decreases of this magnitude.  The remainder of the eastern half of the US sees decreases of -30 to -80 tonnes/summer. The remainder of the continent sees changes of -10 to 10 tonnes/summer.

Figure 13.25 is composed of four panels each containing a map of North America covering an area from the US/Mexico border to the Arctic Ocean.  In each the area contained by the AURAMS-CRCM grids (described in Figure 13.13) is colored by ozone deposition in tonnes/summer.

In Panel A the ten year average (current climate, current emissions) lowest model layer mean summer total ozone deposition is shown. The scale ranges from 0 to 2200 tonnes/summer. In Canada deposition ranges from 0 to 1000 tonnes/summer with the highest levels along the US border and decreasing levels to the north.  Southern Ontario has the highest deposition with levels from 1000 to 1600 tonnes/summer. The US west coast has deposition on the order of 1000 to 1600 tonnes/summerwith somewhat lower levels of 200 to 1000 tonnes/summer in the western inland areas. In the east the highest levels (1600 to 2200 tonnes/summer) occur between Indiana and the Chesapeake and as far north as Lake Ontario. Moving away from that area deposition decreases in a bullseye pattern to levels of 800 to 1000 tonnes/summer in the central US.

In Panel B the change in ozone deposition [{future climate, current emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -100 to 100 tonnes/summer.  In this scenario much of the contnent has changes of -20 to 20 tonnes/summer. Small areas in western British Columbia, at San Francisco, in the Los Angeles-San Diego corridor, at Chicago, Detroit, and just south of Lake Erie have increases of 20 to 100 tonnes/summer. Decreases of -40 to -80 tonnes/summer occur around Cape Hatteras, in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and eastern Texas, in central Florida, and in northern California.

In Panel C the change in ozone deposition [{future climate, RCP 6 emissions} - {current climate, current emissions}] is shown. The scale ranges from -900 to 600 tonnes/summer. In this scenario most of the continent sees changes of -200 to 100 tonnes/summer. However, the eastern US (east of a line between Lake Superior and Texas) sees decreases of -300 to -900 tonnes/summer with the largest decreases in a band stretching inland from Cape Hatteras. Reductions on the order of -300 to -700 tonnes/summer also occur throughout California.  One exception is around Los Angeles, where increases of 200 to 500 tonnes/summer occur.

Panel D shows the same scenario as in Panel B, but with the same color scale as in Panel C. In this case almost the entire continent appears nearly homogeneous in color with changes of -100 to 100 tonnes/summer