Weather Services for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

• 2.0 Weather Services
  • 2.1 Phase I – Planning
  • 2.2 Phase II – Development and Training
  • 2.3 Phase III – Execution and Legacy
  • 2.4 Mission Statement
  • 2.5 Prior Olympics: Weather Support Models
  • 2.6 VANOC-Environment Canada Relationship

2.0 Weather Services

The successful achievement of the goals for phases II and III was predicated on the successful completion of phase I. Each phase had particular staff, resource and time requirements, and deliverables. There were some activities, like overall project management, coordination and the operation of the observing network (including data management), common to all phases.

2.1 Phase I – Planning

Work in this phase focused on the planning for the initial implementation of the basic infrastructure, including the scoping of requirements for weather observing, personnel, training, communications, technology, research, resources and inter-agency relationships and interdependencies. Significant effort went into the acquisition of resource commitments from the GoC’s Treasury Board and VANOC. Estimates of resource requirements were based on expenses incurred in prior Olympics events, especially the Torino Games of 2006 and the Salt Lake City Games of 2002, as we had learned from consultations with our Salt Lake City 2002 colleagues and Torino Organizing Committee 2006 observer visits. For example, initial specifications from VANOC indicated the need for the weather agency to begin preparing detailed climatological studies of the venues as soon as practicable, and resources to initiate this work (mainly through installing venues observing systems) were obtained in 2004. The program planners at EC also realized that a sufficiently long data set (several years’ worth) was required to “train” numerical weather prediction models for venue forecasts, and that many of the forecast locations did not have existing or historical weather observing systems.

As new sources of observational data are, in many respects, the foundation of new forecast programs, work on the installation of a network of Olympic automatic weather stations began in late 2004. Early scoping work was completed for the acquisition of advanced remote-sensing equipment, including Doppler weather radar, a wind profiler, and microwave profiling radiometers. Other sensors, including vertically pointing radar instruments, visibility sensors and surface radiometers, were studied.

As we had learned from prior Games, early forecaster training is fundamental to success, and venue forecasting experience is essential. A program of forecaster on-the-job training began in the Whistler alpine venue in January-March of 2006 and continued each winter season, in each venue, until the Games. To increase the level of specific scientific knowledge and training of forecasters selected to work at the Games, a prototype mountain weather forecasting course was developed. It was initially offered in Boulder, Colorado, at the facilities operated by EC’s weather training partner, the Consortium for Meteorological Education and Training (COMET), in March 2006, and refined versions of the course were offered in December 2006 and December 2007, also at COMET.

2.2 Phase II – Development and Training

A key component of phase II work was to develop a close liaison with VANOC, sport federation and International Olympic Committee (IOC) officials, and essential federal and provincial agencies, to fully document and prepare to deliver on their needs and requirements. Specialized forecaster workstation and forecast production technology was developed in conjunction with the Ninjo development group, and, initially, with the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s (CMC’s) Scribe Development Team. Scribe is the main weather forecast production software used by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). Planning was started with EC’s Researche en Prévisions Numerique – Numerical Weather Prediction Research Division (RPN) to conduct a research program in numerical weather prediction techniques (NWP) with the aim of producing applications of immense value to venue forecasting, including the downscaling of some elements of high-resolution NWP, particularly precipitation and wind. Discussions on research and development on behalf of the Olympic weather forecasting program led to a suggestion that was rapidly acted on, i.e., to initiate planning for a nowcasting (i.e., very short range [0-6 hours] weather forecasting) research development project to be led by scientists with the Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section of the Science and Technology Branch of EC. This project, which became the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10), snowballed into a major project that ultimately provided critical support to the Olympic forecasting effort. In a related area, it was arranged to bring some aspects of a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ongoing research program, the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX), to BC during the years before the Games. In the winter of 2008, a THORPEX-sponsored western Pacific predictability experiment was conducted over the tropical eastern Pacific with significant participation by 2010 forecasters operating from the Pacific Storm Prediction Centre (PSPC). It promised to bring new meteorological insights to forecasting the weather of the North American west coast, particularly with respect to the effect of tropical cyclone conversion and its modification of the Rossby wave downstream. This phenomenon can produce high-impact weather events along the North American west coast. Indeed, one event occurred in January 2010--a very warm and persistent rainstorm at Cypress Mountain--that posed a significant risk to the Games by melting much of the snow at the venue. This was mitigated at great cost and with great effort by VANOC. In conjunction with THORPEX, a local socio-economic study was planned that would calculate the benefit to the Games’ operations of the forecasts produced during the western Pacific predictability experiment that could be extrapolated to 2010.

In 2005 and 2006, discussions were held on forecaster selections. It was decided to undertake an informal but quasi-competitive process within the MSC to select Olympic team forecasters, with two essential attributes deemed necessary for the team: a widespread in-team ability to communicate in both official languages, and significant support from each “home manager.” Prospective members of the team submitted resumes and letters of interest that were vetted by a committee in PYR. Forecasters were selected from each EC forecast office and affiliated Aviation Defence Services forecast offices within MSC, and from the CMC. Two forecasters were also recruited from the private Weather Network, and three forecasters were recruited from adjacent U.S. National Weather Services offices in Seattle, Washington, and Juneau, Alaska. By 2007, Olympic forecast team recruitment and initial training was completed and on-the-job venue forecasting experiences of approximately three weeks duration per forecaster each year were provided to venue forecasters through the winters of 2007 to 2009 at Whistler, the Callaghan Valley and Cypress Mountain. Venue and PSPC Olympic Support Desk forecasters worked sports events of various grades up to and including World Cup events at each venue during the winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09, gaining experience in the weather at the venues and strengthening ties with sporting officials.

In August 2008, a regularly held American Meteorological Society Conference, the Mountain Meteorology Conference, was hosted by EC at Whistler, BC. Immediately following the conference, a four-day workshop and lab sessions focusing on the meteorology of the 2010 venues were held for venue forecasters by MSC Pacific Region, RPN, and Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section staff.

As forecast technology and infrastructure neared completion, a thorough test of the Weather Service System from end to end was undertaken to ensure its functionality and to modify it to adapt to user needs. These tests were carried out during and after key pre-Olympic training events in 2008 and 2009.

In the spring of each year, a full report of actual weather conditions at each venue and an evaluation of forecasts was produced and tabled on our Olympic Family website, now defunct. These reports are available from the author in CD format upon request.

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2.3 Phase III – Execution and Legacy

The final phase was the weather service support during the Olympic Winter Games held February 12-28 and the Paralympics held March 12-21, followed by some decommissioning work thereafter. It included a fully operational weather forecasting system, including dedicated venue forecast products, end-user targeted products, real-time weather forecasts and observed data delivery to the INFO 2010 (the IOC’s Games-time information system) data management system (operated by Atos Origin, the worldwide information technology (IT) partner for the Olympic Games), and the provision of real-time information and professional weather advice to the VANOC, IOC, sporting and team officials at the venues and within the Games’ Main Operations Centre. Much of the demand was for daily or more frequent outlook scenarios and probabilistic risk assessments, based on current and forecast weather conditions, to assist officials considering the scheduling or rescheduling of sporting or ceremonial events due to the effect of meteorological influences or events. A main forecasting support and guidance unit, the Pacific Weather Centre Olympic Desk (POD), operated on a 24/7 basis during the Games and Paralympics, co-located with the PSPC. As well as providing guidance and coordination to venue forecast teams, the POD acted as the primary source of meteorological support for Essential Federal Services (EFS) agencies and agencies from other levels of government. Operating concurrently was a daily series of teleconferences for forecasters, hosted by SNOW-V10 scientists, to discuss short-term forecasting issues, including nowcasting, model guidance and radar-based nowcasting tools. Forecasting high-impact weather of the day was usually the topic of discussion and SNOW-V10 scientists brought their expertise to bear on the solution.

2.4 Mission Statement

The overall mission of EC’s Olympic weather services project (WSP) was to provide comprehensive, high-quality weather-support services to all participants, officials and spectators of the Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games of 2010 and to agencies acting in support of the Games. The project was intended to provide weather forecasts and warnings, observations of weather conditions, climate information, and advice on weather effects and outlook scenarios necessary to run successful competitions, as well as to promote the efficient operation of the Games and to assist related agencies in meeting their requirements for meteorological information and forecast support. The key responsibilities of the WSP were to ensure that the technical requirements of the international sport federations and the IOC were met and that the specific weather support needs of other agencies were addressed in full.

2.5 Prior Olympics: Weather Support Models

Weather conditions are possibly the single most important uncontrollable element in the successful operation of the outdoor winter sporting events at the Olympic Games. Accurate weather services for the games have therefore proven essential to the organizers and competitors of past winter Olympics. In Nagano in 1998, the scheduling of many of the snow-sport events would have been severely hampered had it not been for the proven reliability of weather forecasts at all venues and the confidence that the competition juries had developed during two years of experience during the test events. In Salt Lake City, the use of a supplementary network of 29 automatic weather stations deployed at selected locations at the outdoor venues allowed for real-time access to weather conditions and important data for local predictions. Weather forecasts and hourly updates during the events played a critical and essential role in both the competition jury deliberations and the race organizing committee’s management of resources, workload assignments and, most importantly, the safety of participants. The 2002 Salt Lake City Games employed a dedicated weather support team of 84 people, including 32 professional meteorologists, 34 volunteer weather observers, eight computer and communications experts, and 10 support staff. These individuals provided a continuous 24-hour-a-day service. Weather services for the 2006 Winter Games in Torino relied on approximately 80 weather specialists, with similar ratios to Salt Lake City. Each outdoor sporting venue had its own dedicated weather forecast support office staffed by meteorologists for every day of the Olympics and Paralympics. Within the 2006 Games area there were 50 automatic weather observing stations, augmented by 10 mobile stations deployed to strategic locations at specific venues. Although the 2010 WSP was broadly modelled on the Torino approach, singularly critical lessons, especially on the fusion of science and operations, were learned from Salt Lake City.

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2.6 VANOC-Environment Canada Relationship

The MSC and its parent federal department, EC, are responsible for operating a national weather and climate monitoring and prediction/warning service for the safety of Canadians and the protection of their property. To fulfill this mandate, the MSC operates an integrated weather observing network that includes automatic weather and climate stations, upper-air measuring stations, weather radars, a lightning detection system, and satellite monitoring facilities. Data from these networks are used in numerical weather prediction models and by professional meteorologists to produce forecasts and warnings. The density of the observing networks and the resolution of the models are at a scale designed to meet the national responsibilities. Smaller-scale predictions, such as those required to support events at an “Olympic scale,” are possible but require a higher density of observing stations, local knowledge, and the application of specialized prediction models that are based on local topography and are capable of simulating local effects. For example, in 1976 for the sailing events associated with the Montreal Olympic Games (held at Kingston, Ontario), and again in 1988 for the Calgary Winter Olympic Games, the MSC entered into a contractual agreement with the Olympic organizing committees to augment existing observing networks in the venues and to provide a dedicated team of weather specialists with local knowledge to support the Games.

To serve the needs of 2010, an initial contract with VANOC concerning the installation and maintenance of main-venue tweather observing systems was signed in 2005. As discussed in this section, it was realized early in the planning stage that the density of the existing federal network was too low to permit the more local observations of weather necessary to forecast precise conditions at the venues and to fulfill our weather support responsibilities to Games-supporting agencies. Federal funds were obtained to improve and increase the density of observing systems in the Olympic area and to procure other more advanced weather observing systems. Two further contracts with VANOC for remaining weather services through 2010 (2005-2007 and 2008-2010) were developed to cover the full scope of weather services necessary to fulfill the needs of the Olympic Family.