Chances of a White Christmas

Will your Christmas be white and snowy?

Check the Environment Canada weather forecast. Since the weather forecast covers the next seven days, you can get the forecast for Christmas Day starting on December 18.

For those who can't wait, Environment Canada has analyzed 57 years of weather records for 39 major centres across Canada, and calculated the probability of having a white snow-covered Christmas Day.

The following table charts the amount of snowfall recorded for major cities across Canada from 1955-2011. From this, a probability can be made to determine if a white Christmas will occur for the current year.

Amount of snowfall recorded (in centimetres) for major cities across Canada from 1955 -2011

City	% Chance 1955-2011	% Chance Now 1992-2011	% Chance Before 1963-1982	Perfect Christmas 1955-2007	Snowdepth Now 1992-2011	Snowdepth Before 1963-1982
Brandon	93	90	95	28	19	9
Calgary	56	50	75	4	4	6
Charlottetown	79	60	95	48	7	17
Edmonton	86	80	100	20	11	17
Fredericton	77	55	85	30	6	22
Goose Bay	98	95	100	53	35	64
Grand Prairie	84	75	100	26	15	23
Halifax	58	45	65	24	3	10
Hamilton	61	60	65	26	6	5
Iqaluit	100	100	100	51	18	20
Kamloops	49	40	50	25	4	11
Kelowna	61	50	75	26	5	10
Kenora	100	100	100	43	23	35
London	70	60	75	33	8	10
Medicine Hat	56	45	70	17	5	7
Moncton	74	65	85	40	9	23
Montreal	77	70	80	25	8	16
Ottawa	81	75	80	35	16	18
Prince George	91	85	100	40	13	20
Penticton	28	20	35	11	2	5
Quebec	98	95	100	60	20	41
Regina	91	90	90	38	12	14
Saint John	61	45	70	36	4	11
Sarnia	61	35	80	19	4	9
Saskatoon	93	80	100	22	9	13
St. John's	63	60	55	24	6	9
Stephenville	82	70	90	64	11	23
Sudbury	95	90	100	46	20	21
Thunder Bay	96	90	100	38	14	24
Timmins	98	95	100	46	32	51
Toronto City	46	35	50	9	4	5
Toronto(GTA)	53	35	65	13	4	6
Vancouver	11	20	10	4	4	2
Victoria	11	15	10	6	3	1
Whitehorse	100	100	100	27	16	27
Wiarton	82	75	85	54	16	17
Windsor	46	40	45	4	3	3
Winnipeg	98	95	100	11	14	15
Yellowknife	100	100	100	27	25	25

Definitions

• % Chance: probability of a white Christmas (snowcover of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning at 7 a.m.) for full period of 57 years
• % Chance Now: for kids today based on period (1992-2011)
• % Chance Before: for parents today when they were kids (1963-1982)
• Perfect Christmas: a white Christmas morning and snow in the air on Christmas day, i.e., a measurable snowfall on Christmas (1955-2007)
• Snowdepth Now: average depth of snowcover (cm) on Christmas morning from 1992 to 2011
• Snowdepth Before: average depth of snowcover (cm) on Christmas morning from 1963 to 1982