Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecasting: Learning from International Best Practices

Table of Contents

National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy: Mandate
Members of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy

1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction
   1. 2.1 Background and Purpose
   2. 2.2 Analytical Approach
3. The Challenge of Forecasting
   1. 3.1 What is Forecasting?
   2. 3.2 Modelling Approaches
4. What are the Best Practices of GHG Emissions Reductions Forecasting?
   1. 4.1 Methodology
   2. 4.2 Governance
   3. 4.3 Canada’s Approach
      1. 4.3.1 Forecasting Model
      2. 4.3.2 Accuracy of Canada’s Forecasts
   4. 4.4 Case Studies
      1. 4.4.1 Introduction
      2. 4.4.2 United States
      3. 4.4.3 United Kingdom
5. Discussion
   1. 5.1 Lessons for Canada
6. Conclusion

1. Appendix A: List of Abbreviations and Acronyms
2. Appendix B: Description of Additionality, Free-ridership, Rebound Effect, and Policy Interaction Effects
3. Appendix C: Discussion of Top-down, Bottom-up, and Hybrid Approaches to Energy-Economy Modelling
4. Appendix D: Glossary of Useful Modelling
5. Notice to Reader
   

Mandate

About Us

The National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) is dedicated to exploring new opportunities to integrate environmental conservation and economic development, in order to sustain Canada’s prosperity and secure its future.

Drawing on the wealth of insight and experience represented by our diverse membership, our mission is to generate and promote innovative ways to advance Canada’s environmental and economic interests in combination, rather than in isolation. In this capacity, it examines the environmental and economic implications of priority issues and offers advice on how best to reconcile the sometimes competing interests of economic prosperity and environmental conservation.

The NRTEE was created by the government in October 1988. Its independent role and mandate were enshrined in the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy Act, which was passed by the House of Commons in May 1993. Appointed by Governor in Council, our members are distinguished leaders in business and labour, universities, environmental organizations, Aboriginal communities and municipalities.

How We Work

The NRTEE is structured as a round table in order to facilitate the unfettered exchange of ideas. By offering our members a safe haven for discussion, the NRTEE helps reconcile positions that have traditionally been at odds.

The NRTEE is also a coalition builder, reaching out to organizations that share our vision for sustainable development. We believe that affiliation with like-minded partners will spark creativity and generate the momentum needed for success.

And finally, the NRTEE acts as an advocate for positive change, raising awareness among Canadians and their governments about the challenges of sustainable development and promoting viable solutions.

We also maintain a secretariat, which commissions and analyses the research required by our members in their work. The secretariat furnishes administrative, promotional and communications support to the NRTEE.

Our Current Projects

The members of the NRTEE meet four times a year to review their research and conduct their deliberations. Our current projects focus on:

• Energy Efficiency in the Commercial Buildings Sector
• Climate Change Adaptation Policy for Northern Infrastructure
• Carbon Emissions Pricing Policies

For more details on past and current programs, visit our website at http://www.nrtee-trnee.ca.

Members

Chair
Robert Page
TransAlta Professor of Environmental Management
and Sustainability Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy
University of Calgary Calgary, Alberta

Vice-Chair
Francine Dorion
St-Bruno-de-Montarville, Quebec

Janet Benjamin
President, Vireo Technologies Inc.
and President, Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of BC
North Vancouver, British Columbia

Pauline Browes
Director Waterfront Regeneration Trust
Toronto, Ontario

Elizabeth Brubaker
Executive Director
Environment Probe
Toronto, Ontario

Angus Bruneau
Corporate Director
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador

David Chernushenko
President
Green & Gold Inc.
Ottawa, Ontario

Anthony Dale
Vice President, Policy and Public Affairs
Ontario Hospital Association
Toronto, Ontario

Robert A. Dubé
President
Atout Personnel
Montreal, Quebec

Timothy R. Haig
President & CEO, BIOX Corporation
Oakville, Ontario

Christopher Hilkene
President
Clean Water Foundation
Toronto, Ontario

Mark Jaccard
Professor
School of Resource and Environmental Management
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, British Columbia

Don MacKinnon
President Power Workers’ Union
Toronto, Ontario

Ken McKinnon
Chair
Yukon Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Board
Whitehorse, Yukon

Richard W. Prokopanko
Director of Corporate Affairs and Sustainability
Rio Tinto Alcan Inc.
Vancouver, British Columbia

Wishart Robson
Climate Change Advisor
Nexen Inc.
Calgary, Alberta

Robert Slater
Adjunct Professor
Environmental Policy
Carleton University
Ottawa, Ontario

Robert Sopuck
Vice-President of Policy (Western Canada)
Delta Waterfowl Foundation
Winnipeg, Manitoba

David McLaughlin
NRTEE President & CEO