Canada’s Emissions Trends

Environment Canada
July 2011

Table of Contents

Text Description of Figures

 

Text Description of Figure ES1 Total Canadian GHG Emissions by Economic Sector (2005 Mt CO2e)3

Transportation: 164 Mt or 22%; Electricity: 126 Mt or 17%; Oil and Gas: 153 Mt or 21%; Emission-Intensive Trade-Exposed Industries: 80 Mt or 11%; Buildings: 80 Mt or 11%; Agriculture: 74 Mt or 10%; Waste and Others: 54 Mt or 8%

Back to Figure ES1

 

 

Text Description of Figure ES2 Global GHG Emissions by Country (2005 Mt CO2e)

China: 7,233 Mt or 19%; United States of America: 6,914 Mt or 18%; European Union: 5,043 Mt or 13%; Russian Federation: 1,955 or 5; India: 1,859 Mt or 5%; Japan: 1,346 Mt or 4%; Brazil: 1,012 Mt 3%; Canada: 731 Mt or 2%; Others: 11,535 Mt or 37%

Back to Figure ES2

 

 

Text Description of Figure ES3 Scenarios of Canadian Emissions to 2020 (Mt CO2e)

Figure ES3 presents two lines on a graph spanning the years 1990-2020. One line shows that without government action, emissions in 2020 are projected to be 850 Mt. The other line shows that with government action emissions in 2020 are projected to be 785 Mt.

Current government actions will mean 65 Mt fewer greenhouse gas emissions than would have been the case had there been no government action. This shows that an additional reduction of 178 Mt is required to meet Canada's emissions reduction target. Provincial Governments have set an aggregate target which would lower emissions to 625 Mt in 2020. Provincial Government additional reductions of 160 Mt is required to meet combined provincial emissions reduction targets.

Back to Figure ES3

 

 

Text Description of Figure 1 Global GHG Emissions by Country (2005 Mt CO2e) 7

China: 7,233 Mt or 19%; United States of America: 6,914 Mt or 18%; European Union: 5,043 Mt or 13%; Russian Federation: 1,955 or 5; India: 1,859 Mt or 5%; Japan: 1,346 Mt or 4%; Brazil: 1,012 Mt 3%; Canada: 731 Mt or 2%; Others: 11,535 Mt or 37%

Back to Figure 1

 

 

Text Description of Figure 2 Total Canadian 2005 GHG emissions – Activity vs Economic Sector (Mt CO2e)

By Activity: Stationary Combustion Sources: 336 Mt or 46%; Transport: 192 Mt or 26%; Fugitive Sources: 65 Mt or 9%; Industrial Processes: 55 Mt or 8%; Agriculture: 62 Mt or 8%; Waste: 21 Mt or 3%; By Economic Sector: Transportation: 164 Mt or 22%; Electricity: 126 Mt or 17%; Oil and Gas: 153 Mt or 21%; Emission-Intensive Trade- Exposed Industries: 80 Mt or 11%; Buildings: 80 Mt or 11%; Agriculture: 74 Mt or 10%; Waste and Others: 54 Mt or 8%

Back to Figure 2

 

 

Text Description of Figure 3 Projected GHG emissions under alternative economic assumptions

Figure 3 presents a time series line on a graph spanning the years 1990-2008 representing historical Canadian emissions. In 2008 the line spits in three to represent: low world oil price and GDP growth, high world oil price and GDP growth or baseline world oil price and GDP growth. The graph demonstrates that under the high GDP and high world oil price scenario, emissions are projected to grow faster reaching 839 Mt by 2020. Under the low world oil price and low GDP scenario, emissions are projected to grow slower reaching 747 Mt in 2020. Under the baseline GDP growth and world oil price, emissions grow to reach 785 Mt in 2020.

Back to Figure 3

 

 

Text Description of Figure 4 Total Canadian GHG emissions and projections (with no further government actions): 1990 to 2020 (Mt CO2e)

Historical Emissions: 1990: 592 Mt; 1995: 641 Mt; 2000: 717 Mt; 2005: 731 Mt; 2008: 734 Mt; Projected Emissions: 2010: 710 Mt; 2015: 741 Mt; 2020: 785 Mt.

Back to Figure 4

 

 

Text Description of Figure 5 Baseline Emissions Scenario with and without Government Actions

Figure 5 presents a time series line on a graph spanning the years 1990-2008 representing historical Canadian emissions. In 2008 the line spits in two to represent the case if government had taken no action to lower emissions and the current case that includes current government programs and initiatives. The graph shows that without current provincial and federal government actions, emissions in 2020 would be 65 megatonnes higher.

Back to Figure 5

 

 

Text Description of Figure 6 Scenarios of Canadian Emissions to 2020 (Mt CO2e)

Figure 6 presents two lines on a graph spanning the years 1990-2020. One line shows that without government action, emissions in 2020 are projected to be 850 Mt. The other line shows that with government action emissions in 2020 are projected to be 785 Mt.

Current government actions will mean 65 Mt fewer greenhouse gas emissions than would have been the case had there been no government action. This shows that an additional reduction of 178 Mt is required to meet Canada's emissions reduction target. Provincial Governments have set an aggregate target which would lower emissions to 625 Mt in 2020. Provincial Government additional reductions of 160 Mt is required to meet combined provincial emissions reduction targets.

Back to Figure 6

 

 

Text Description of Figure A1.1 Crude Oil Price: WTI and Canadian Bitumen

The figure presents two lines on a time series graph spanning the years 1990 to 2020. Price trends show that historically the price of heavy oil/bitumen has followed the light crude oil price (WTI), but at a discount of between 50 and 60 per cent. The two lines mirror each other over the time period and both increase significantly post the 2011 recovery.

Back to Figure A1.1

 

 

Text Description of Figure A1.2 Wellhead Natural Gas Price in Alberta

The figure presents a line on a time series graph spanning the years 1990 to 2020. Price trends show that the there was a crash in prices during the recession years around 2009 but the price has since recovered and is projected to remain steady only slightly below 2005 levels.

Back to Figure A1.2

 

 

Figure A3.1 Energy, emissions and economy model for Canada

The diagram explains how the Infometrica Model “TIM” feeds the following data into the Model “Energy 2020”: Gross Output by Industry Jurisdictions, Personal Income, Inflation, Tax Rates, and Exchange Rates. Energy 2020 then balances demand with supply incorporating prices. The output from Energy 2020 is then fed into TIM creating a circular path. Output includes: (i) changes to investments in energy using equipment and structures by sector and industry; (ii) changes to energy intensity (energy input per unit of output) by sector, by industry and fuel; (iii) changes in energy prices.

Back to Figure A3.1

 

 

Table of Contents