Appendix A: Analysis and Assessment of Individual Measure

1.7 ecoMOBILITY Initiative

Table 10: Summary of Analysis for ecoMOBILITY Initiative

Program Projected Emissions
Reductions in Mt		 Key Determinants of Results Predictive Accuracy
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ecoMOBILITY
Initiative		 0 0 0.11 0.11 0.11
  • Emissions reductions no longer based on effects of more aggressive disincentive policies, but impact of this information program may still be optimistic
 Likely overestimate
(though improved from 2008)

Summary of the Initiative

The ecoMOBILITY program is an information program designed to increase municipal capacity to combine transportation demand-management policies, programs, and services with major infrastructure investments under federal infrastructure funding initiative. The program is assessed here even though small emissions reductions are attributed to it because the emissions reductions attributed to it have changed significantly in 2009.

Analysis

In its response to the 2008 Plan, the NRTEE found that the impact of this program was overestimated since it was assumed that the information provided would reduce the vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) by passenger vehicles in urban areas by 3% by 2010. The model scenario used to justify the 3% measure was based specifically on disincentives, not information programs, and provided the following examples of policies:

  • Parking management
    • Limited supply of long-term parking
    • Higher and more extensive parking charges
  • Road pricing (i.e., tolls)
  • Institutional measures
  • Trip reduction bylaws
  • Bicycle parking bylaws
  • Distance-based vehicle insurance
  • Taxes and fees on vehicle ownership
  • Fuel taxes

Documentation provided by Transport Canada suggests that the 2009 Estimates were reduced significantly (assumed reductions in VKT changed from 3% to 0.2%) because “the current program approach to focus on a narrower range of non-transit-based TDM strategies will necessarily lower GHG emission reductions that will be attributable to the program in 2012." Even the low-TDM scenarios in the publication cited by Transport Canada [47] assume significant intervention and funding. This program does not likely have the budget or the scope to affect vehicle use decisions in each municipality in Canada and so, while demonstration projects show promising results, significant budget outlays would be required to implement these programs on a large scale and achieve the estimated emissions reductions.

Conclusions

The 3% reduction attributed to the 2008 Plan was likely overly optimistic, and Transport Canada has adjusted the measures accordingly in 2009. At the level of precision of this analysis, some overestimates likely remain. The program must still accomplish the equivalent of removing one vehicle out of 500 off the road, which is unlikely to occur through information provision. In future, estimates for such programs should only include actions directly attributed to the information provided, and should perhaps use greater caution when equating information provision with either incentives or disincentives provided through financial or regulatory programs.

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47 Canada, 2005.