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Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions Reference Case

Emissions projections by sector

This section describes projected emissions by sectors defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by type of greenhouse gas, economic sector and subsector.

Table A1 Detailed Emissions Projections by IPCC Sector (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistoricalProjected
20052010201420202030
Stationary Combustion and Fugitive Sources403371391389392
Transport195199203201192
Industrial Processes5850515974
Agriculture6157595960
Waste3129292323
Total747706732731742

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A2 Detailed Emissions by Type of Gas (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistoricalProjected
20052010201420202030
Carbon dioxide (CO2)579555574577577
Methane (CH4)116104108100103
Nitrous oxide (N2O)4138393940
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)6791419
Perfluorocarbons (PFC)42112
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)10000
Total747706732731742

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A3 Comparison of 2016 and 2015 Emissions by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sector (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistorical2015 Projection2016 ProjectionChange
2005202020302020203020202030
Stationary Combustion and Fugitive Sources403417450389392-28-58
Transport195204198201192-3-6
Industrial Processes5866845974-7-10
Agriculture6160615960-1-1
Waste312122232321
Total747768815731742-37-73

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A4 Comparison of 2016 and 2015 Emissions by Type of Gas (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistorical2015 Projection2016 ProjectionChange
2005202020302020203020202030
CO2579608643577577-31-66
CH4116103104100103-3-1
N2O4140423940-1-2
HFC6142214190-3
PFC42212-10
SF61000000
Total747768815731742-37-73

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A5 Change in GHG Emissions by Economic Sector (Mt Co2eq)
Sector2005201420202030Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Electricity118786434-53-84
Transportation171171168157-3-14
Oil and Gas1591922012334273
Heavy Industry88768597-49
Buildings8587899449
Agriculture7073727424
Waste & Others56545153-5-3
Total747732731742-16-6

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Detailed Economic Sector Tables

Table A6 Oil and Gas Sector: Emissions by Production Type (Mt Co2 eq)Footnote 4
 2005201420202030Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Natural Gas Production and Processing58575056-9-3
Conventional Oil Production3136313201
Light Oil Production
1217141624
Heavy Oil Production
17171615-2-2
Frontier Oil Production
22210-1
Oil SandsFootnote 43468871085374
Bitumen In Situ
83038573049
Bitumen Mining
101826271717
Bitumen Upgrading
1620232568
Oil and Natural Gas Transmission1210910-3-3
Downstream Oil and Gas2323232300
Petroleum Products
2221222200
Natural Gas Distribution
111100
Liquid Natural Gas Production000303
Total1591922012334273

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A7 Selected Upstream Oil and Natural Gas Subsectors: Emissions and Drivers
 2005201420202030
Conventional Oil Production    
Emissions (Mt CO2 eq)
31363132
Production (1,000 barrels/day)
1,3611,4011,3091,247
Natural Gas Production and Processing    
Emissions (Mt CO2 eq)
58575056
Gross Production (billion cubic feet)
7,7536,8296,3197,366
Oil SandsFootnote 4    
Emissions (Mt CO2 eq)
346887108
Production (1,000 barrels/day)
1,0662,3063,2203,967

Note: Numbers do not include C5 and condensates.

Table A8 Petroleum Refining: Emissions and Drivers
Traditional Refineries2005201420202030
Emissions (Mt CO2 eq)22212222
Refined Petroleum Processed (1,000 barrels/day)2,0951,9522,0332,033
Table A9 Electricity Generation: Emissions by Fuel Type (Mt CO2 eq)
 2005201420202030Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Coal  9762 52 8 -45 -90
Refined Petroleum Products  115 3 2 -9 -9
Natural Gas  912 9 24 0 15
Biomass  <1 <1 <1 <1 0 0
 Total 118 78 64 34 -53 -84

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A10 Electricity Sector: Emissions and Drivers
 2005201420202030
Emissions (Mt CO2 eq)118786434
Generation (Terawatt Hours)550580595607
Table A11 Transportation: Emissions (Mt CO2 eq)
 2005201420202030Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Passenger Transport97958973-8-24
Cars, Trucks and Motorcycles
88868064-8-25
Bus, Rail and Domestic Aviation
999901
Freight Transport62687073711
Heavy Duty Trucks, Rail
55626366811
Domestic Aviation and Marine
8677-10
Other: Recreational, Commercial and Residential119911-2-1
Total171171168157-3-14

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A12 Heavy Industry: Emissions by Subsector (Mt CO2 eq)
 2005201420202030Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Mining6891034
Smelting and Refining (Non-ferrous metals)14101215-21
Pulp and Paper9787-1-2
Iron and Steel19161721-21
Cement13101011-3-2
Lime and Gypsum3323-1-1
Chemicals and Fertilizers2324273137
Total88768597-49

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A13 Buildings: Emissions (Mt CO2 eq)
 2005201420202030Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Residential46464546-10
Commercial4041444959
Total8587899449

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A14 Buildings: Building Stock (million households and million m2 floor space)
 2005201420202030Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Residential: households (millions)1214151634
Commercial: floorspace (millions m2)654750804920150266
Table A15 Agriculture Sector: Emissions (Mt CO2 eq)
 2005201420202030Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
On-Farm Fuel Use914131455
Crop Production1722212155
Animal Production45373739-8-6
Total7073727424

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A16 Waste and Others: Emissions (Mt CO2 eq)
 2005201420202030Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Waste31292323-7-8
Coal Production344311
Light Manufacturing, Construction and Forest Resources2322242724
Total56545153-5-3

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

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