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Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions Reference Case

Detailed emissions by gas and by economic sector

Table A17 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistoricalProjected
19901995200020052010201420202030
Oil and Gas7083103112119143156184
Electricity949712811794776433
Transportation124131147161165165162152
Heavy Industry7278817870738091
Buildings6873787872777574
Agriculture810111012151515
Waste & Others2725252323232627
Total463497572579555574577577

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A18 Methane Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistoricalProjected
19901995200020052010201420202030
Oil and Gas3649554742484447
Electricity00000000
Transportation10000000
Heavy Industry00000000
Buildings44433333
Agriculture2731333630292930
Waste & Others2728293029282322
Total95113121116104108100103

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A19 Nitrous Oxide (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistoricalProjected
19901995200020052010201420202030
Oil and Gas01111122
Electricity11111000
Transportation56775444
Heavy Industry1212342222
Building11111111
Agriculture2224252526292828
Waste & Others22222222
Total4246404138393940

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A20 Hydrofluorocarbon Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistoricalProjected
19901995200020052010201420202030
Oil and Gas00000000
Electricity00000000
Transportation00122320
Heavy Industry10000011
Buildings0023461017
Agriculture00000000
Waste & Others00000011
Total1136791419

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A21 Perfluorocarbon Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistoricalProjected
19901995200020052010201420202030
Oil and Gas00000000
Electricity00000000
Transportation00000000
Heavy Industry86542112
Buildings00000000
Agriculture00000000
Waste & Others00000000
Total86542112

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A22 Sulphur Hexafluoride Emissions Projections by Economic Sector (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistoricalProjected
19901995200020052010201420202030
Oil and Gas00000000
Electricity00000000
Transportation00000000
Heavy Industry32310000
Buildings00000000
Agriculture00000000
Waste & Others00000000
Total32310000

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

The Table below presents the historical and projected emissions from foreign passenger and foreign freight (both aviation and marine). These emissions are not included in the reference scenario.

Table A23 Total GHGs from Foreign Passenger and Freight, Aviation and Marine (Mt CO2 eq)
SectorHistoricalProjected
19901995200020052010201420202030
Foreign Freight45554333
Foreign Passenger55888101011
Table A24: Provincial and Territorial Reference Case Emissions: 2005 to 2030 (Mt CO2 eq)
Provinces2005201420202030Change
2005 to 2020
Change
2005 to 2030
Newfoundland10111080-2
Prince Edward Island222200
Nova Scotia23171412-10-11
New Brunswick20151514-6-7
Quebec*90838586-5-3
Ontario*211170168170-43-40
Manitoba2121222323
Saskatchewan7076736930
Alberta2332742762794346
British Columbia65636575010
Territories2222-10
Canada747732731742-16-6

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

* These estimates represent domestic emissions. As such, they do not include potential allowances purchased internationally under the Western Climate Initiative cap-and-trade program. Ontario and Quebec have legislated GHG emissions targets for 2020 and 2030. Both provinces have regulated emissions caps to achieve their 2020 targets, Ontario's target being 15% below 1990 and Quebec being 20% (representing, as of the 2014 Canadian inventory, the equivalent of 155 Mt and 71 Mt, respectively). The provinces will use a combination of new domestic policies and international allowances to meet their legislated targets. The impact of Ontario and Quebec’s acquisition of international allowances will be additional to reductions shown in Table A24, and have been included in the measures described on page 45 of the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change.

Table A25 Macroeconomic Assumptions, 2005-2030 Average Annual Growth Rates
Assumption2005-20142014-20202020-2030
Average Annual GDP Growth Rate1.6%1.7%1.6%
Average Annual Population Growth Rate1.1%1.0%0.9%
Average Annual Labour Force Growth Rate1.1%0.7%0.6%

Oil and natural gas production assumptions for the Reference case are noted in the tables below. Oil and natural gas price and production forecasts are from the National Energy Board’s most recent forecast presented in its Energy Futures 2016: Update – Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040, October 2016.

Table A26 Crude Oil Production in Thousands of Barrels per Day
Crude Oil Production2005201420202030
Crude and Condensates1,5331,5881,5471,513
Conventional Light
511712578652
Conventional Heavy
526462442438
C5 and Condensates
173186239266
Frontier Light (Offshore and Northern)
324227289157
Oil Sands1,0662,3063,2203,967
Oil Sands: Primary
151285329394
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage
837371,0001,566
Cyclic Steam Simulation
205244309405
Oil Sands Mining
6271,0391,5821,602
Total Production (Gross)2,5993,8934,7675,479

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A27 Oil Sands Disposition in Thousands of Barrels per Day
Oil Sands Disposition2005201420202030
Oil Sands (gross)1,0662,3063,2203,967
Oil Sands (net)
9802,1913,0843,824
Synthetic
6111,0271,2621,381
Non-upgraded Bitumen
3691,1641,8222,443
Own Use
86115136143

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A28 Natural Gas Production and Supply in Billion Cubic Feet
Natural Gas Production2005201420202030
Natural Gas Supply6,5956,1156,4907,641
Marketable Gas
6,2635,3425,4066,371
Gross Production
7,7536,8296,3197,366
Own Use Consumption
1,4901,486913995
Imports
3327731,0831,270
Liquid Natural Gas Production000912

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A29 Utility Electricity Generation by Fuel, Terawatt-hours
Fuel2005201420202030
Coal and Petroleum Coke98675711
Hydro327348374392
Natural Gas21292360
Nuclear871028674
Other Renewables4305369
Refined Petroleum Products14521
Total Generation550580595607

Note: Numbers may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Table A30 GHG Measures Reflected in Projections (in place as of November 2016)
Provincial/Territorial Measures
Alberta
  • Climate Leadership Plan:
    • Carbon levy
    • Coal Phase-Out
    • Emission performance standards and limits for oil sands
    • Renewable Electricity Program
  • Renewable fuels standard
  • Microgeneration regulation
  • Bioproducer and public transit programs
  • Quest carbon capture and storage project
  • Carbon Trunk Line Project – CO2 capture and use for enhanced oil recovery
British Columbia
  • Carbon tax
  • Renewable and low carbon fuel requirements regulation
  • Emissions offsets regulation
  • Landfill gas management regulation
  • British Columbia Clean Energy Act: Clean or renewable electricity requirement – 93% of electricity from clean or renewable sources
Manitoba
  • Ethanol sales mandate
  • Biodiesel mandate
  • Emissions tax on coal
New Brunswick
  • Renewable portfolio standard
Newfoundland and Labrador
  • Muskrat Falls hydro project
Nova Scotia
  • Renewable portfolio standard for electricity generation
  • Electricity demand-side management policies
  • Solid Waste-Resource Management Regulations
  • Cap on GHG emissions from the electricity sector
Ontario
  • Western Climate Initiative cap-and-trade regime
  • Residential electricity peak savings (time-of-use pricing)
  • Feed-in tariff program
  • Landfill gas regulation (O. Reg. 216/08 and 217/08)
  • Coal phase-out
  • Independent Electricity System Operator contracted electricity supply
  • Ethanol in gasoline rules
  • Nuclear refurbishment
Quebec
  • Western Climate Initiative cap-and-trade regime
  • 5% ethanol objective in gasoline distributors fuel sales
  • Drive electric program
  • Landfill gas regulation
  • Eco-performance program for industry
Saskatchewan
  • Ethanol fuel program
  • Renewable diesel program
  • Boundary Dam 3 Carbon Capture Project
Federal Measures
  • Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired generation of electricity regulations announced in 2012
  • Residential building code changes to incorporate energy efficiency for adoption by provinces across Canada
  • Commercial building code changes to incorporate energy efficiency for adoption by provinces across Canada
  • Renewable Fuels Regulations
  • Federal Budget 2016: Supporting Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Development.  Increase efficiency of residential and commercial devices (including refrigeration, freezers, ranges, dryers) through regulations and ENERGY STAR certification
  • Light-duty vehicles 1 (LDV-1) GHG emissions standards for the light-duty vehicle model years 2011 to 2016
  • Light-duty vehicles 2 (LDV-2) GHG emissions standards increases stringency for model years 2017 to 2025
  • Heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) GHG emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicle model years 2014 to 2018
  • The pulp and paper green transformation program, to improve environmental performance of mills including GHG emissions reductions; the program ended in 2012 but will result in ongoing emission reductions
  • Incandescent lighting phase-out
  • Voluntary emission reductions for planes and trains

 

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