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Canada's 2016 greenhouse gas emissions Reference Case

Alternate emissions scenarios

Given the uncertainty regarding the key drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Reference Case presented in the previous section should be seen as one estimate within a set of possible emissions outcomes in the projection period, as events that will shape emissions and energy markets cannot be fully anticipated. In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics and resources cannot be foreseen with certainty. The variation in these complex economic and energy variables implies that modelling results are most appropriately viewed as a range of plausible outcomes. Environment and Climate Change Canada addresses this uncertainty via modelling and analysis of alternate cases that focus on variability in two key factors: future economic growth projections and the evolution of oil and natural gas prices and production as per the National Energy Board’s high and low forecast scenarios. These assumptions are presented in Tables A31 and A32, and the overall range of emissions is presented in Table A33.

Table A31 Economic Growth and Population from 2014 to 2030
Assumption2014 to 20202020 to 2030
LowReferenceHighLowReferenceHigh
Average Annual GDP Growth Rate1.4%1.6%2.1%0.8%1.7%2.4%
Average Annual Population Growth Rate0.7%1.0%1.2%0.5%0.9%1.2%
Table A32 Oil and Gas Price and Production in 2020 and 2030
Assumption20202030
LowReferenceHighLowReferenceHigh
Crude Oil Price: WTI (2014 US$/bbl)3664854281111
Crude Oil Price: WCS (2014 US$/bbl)174260286289
Crude Oil Production (1000 bbl/day)447045294705466252145986
Natural Gas Price: Henry Hub (2014 US$/GJ)2.433.093.922.893.724.62
Natural Gas Production (Billion cubic feet)570663197183600873669758

*Numbers do not include C5 and condensates

Table A33 Sensitivity of GHG Emissions to Changes in GDP and Price (excluding LULUCF) in Mt CO2 eq
Scenario202020302020 Projection -
2005 Emission
2030 Projection -
2005 Emission
Slow GDP, Low World Oil and Gas Prices720697-27-51
Fast GDP, High World Oil and Gas Prices747790043
Reference Scenario731742-16-6
Sensitivity Range720 to 747697 to 790-27 to 0-51 to 43
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