Final Report
November 2010
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The following conclusions on the Program's relevance and performance have been developed based on evaluation findings and analyses:
The Improved Climate Change Scenarios Program is relevant in meeting climate change information needs and is aligned with governmental priorities and federal roles and responsibilities.
The Program is fundamental in its provision of foundational data and information on climate change and its impacts. Because the Program's objectives and activities provide specialized scientific research on climate change and its impacts, its relevance is linked to the Government of Canada's broader policy objectives and priorities related to climate change issues. Program activities, outputs and intended outcomes are aligned with Environment Canada's priorities to improve knowledge and information on weather and environmental conditions to influence decision-making. These data and information help to influence changes to infrastructure design that take into account present and future climate hazards and extremes, ultimately contributing to protect the safety and security of Canadians and their property.
There is a legitimate role and responsibility for the federal government to deliver this program because, without these data and information, Canada would be more vulnerable to climate change and its impacts that pose considerable threat to the health and well-being of Canadians. This evaluation demonstrates that the federal government has a necessary role and responsibility in carrying out climate modelling, establishing and operating climate monitoring networks, conducting impacts and adaptation research in response to policy needs and providing national leadership in the direction, co-ordination, and funding of climate science in Canada. The Government of Canada is well suited for this role because it is able to provide the large amount of scientific expertise, resources, infrastructure and capacity (including technical capacity) needed to address climate change impacts for the long-term. Other programs and organizations involved in similar activities are complementary rather than duplicative the Program. As well, there is a need for centralization to provide consistent information and quality data with an independent, national perspective that can contribute to the international scientific community. Because climate change is a global phenomenon that must be addressed in concert with other countries, the Program's research activities in the international scientific community contribute to shared knowledge and understanding of climate change and its impacts around the world.
Current resource levels and difficulties in staffing pose a challenge for the Program in achieving its expected outcomes, particularly for the hazards and extremes component of the program.
There is a clear tension between expectations for the Program to achieve its intended outcomes and its ability to deliver on its commitments fully. The Improved Climate Change Scenarios Program is a science-based initiative that relies on the expertise of its scientists to meet its research objectives and achieve its expected outcomes. Adaptation funding for this program was intended to provide salary dollars for new work on climate modelling, climate change scenarios and, in particular, hazards and extremes research. Because there were delays in receiving Adaptation funding, the Program was unable to staff positions as planned to complete the work required. Departmental funding adjustments during the second year of implementation also had a negative impact on the Program's ability to achieve its intended outcomes. For example, there were delays in completing research on settlements in the North and AIRS was not able to complete on time its extreme event analyses to support the development of new national codes and standards. The activities and intended outcomes are not considered to be realistic as originally planned given the Program's capacity, particularly for the hazards and extremes component, which required the highest number of positions to be staffed.
The Program could be improved by expanding its reach and providing more useful information to target audiences.
One of the Program's strengths relating to cost-efficiencies are the synergies created with research networks in universities, regional research groups and regional Environment Canada staff in order to harness scientific expertise to achieve program objectives. These networks and partnerships have reduced duplication of effort, saved on overhead costs andhave led to greater collaboration to address climate change issues. However, improvements could be made to the kinds of partnerships and networks possible. For example, increased partnerships with regional organizations could lead to more joint research projects and stronger connections with other federal departments could increase communication and coordination of climate change research activities across the federal government. As well, CCCSN training workshops and information sessions for the hazards component of the Program were generally well-received by target audiences, but key informants felt that these reach only a portion of their potential target users. By expanding the reach of these sessions, awareness could be raised among more target users of the Program's products (e.g., websites, research) and could facilitate their use and application of the Program's climate change data and information. Expanding the Program's partnerships and networks through improved outreach activities could enhance its ability to achieve its expected outcomes.
As well, the Program could be improved by providing more useful information. Climate change impacts are not experienced on a global scale; extreme weather events are experienced locally and adaptive strategies therefore need to be locally focused to be effective. In particular, regionally or locally focussed information is more useful than national or global information for external partners. The general consensus across internal and external partners, however, is that regionally focussed climate change information is generally not sufficiently available, particularly for the North given the greater rate of climate change in this area and the impact for northern communities. As well, technical committees for developing infrastructure among external partners require updated data and information on climatic design values to support the development of new national codes and standards. Without these updated data and information, Canadians are increasingly vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate change.
The Program is generally being implemented as planned but the lack of ongoing performance data created difficulties in demonstrating the full performance story.
The evaluation found that the comprehensiveness and appropriateness of the Program's performance data could be improved. For example, a performance measurement plan for the Program was developed but this framework is not fully populated and the performance indicators that were identified lack sufficient specificity to provide useful measures of the Program's progress towards achieving intended outcomes. Performance data were available but some of this information was highly scientific and technical such that its complexity limited its usefulness in the evaluation. This evaluation demonstrates that, despite some delays, the Program is being implemented as planned but the lack of ongoing performance information for all program activities and outputs makes it difficult to assess the achievement of expected outcomes.