3.0 MethodologyIn its 2007 Response to its obligations under the KPIA, the NRTEE developed an analytical framework by which to evaluate the likelihood that the proposed measures or regulations would achieve the projected emission reductions in the Plan, and the likelihood that the proposed measures would allow Canada to meet its requirements under the Kyoto Protocol. The NRTEE used the same methodological approach in its 2008 Response, and continues to use the methodology for the 2009 Response. The NRTEE's analysis is a qualitative one, not a quantitative one. We do not produce an alternative set of numbers for comparison given the limited time and resources available within the confines of the Act. Where we conclude that stated emission reductions are likely not to be achieved, we cannot say definitively by how much or what the exact number might be. Instead, we looked at the assumptions and methodology for each measure. It is important to recognize that emission forecasting is not an exact science. Its utility lies particularly in the directions it conveys and policy choices it helps illuminate for decision makers. An initial assessment of the necessary (and available) analytical tools and methodologies led the NRTEE to conclude that the best approach to assessing likelihood was to determine whether the estimates themselves were accurate descriptions of the outcomes that could reasonably be expected from the policies and program initiatives described in the government's Plan. Given the nature of the mandate and the timelines involved, the presentation of a qualitative sense of predictive accuracy as opposed to a complete modelling of policy outcomes was chosen as most appropriate. As a result, the NRTEE has derived, where possible, a qualitative conclusion for each policy or measure. The statistical evidence and underlying assumptions suggest one of the following:
To be clear, the NRTEE is not in a position to provide a definitive statement on the actual emissions reduction level attributable to each policy and measure individually, or in total. Rather, it is providing an assessment — on the basis of what it knows about the underlying assumptions — of whether the measures and policies described in the Plan are likely to result in the suggested emissions reduction levels. All forecasting is uncertain and cannot be expected to be 100 per cent accurate. Defining the likelihood of achieving a stated emission reduction must in turn be qualified by this assumption. A qualitative assessment for each program or policy using this framework is provided in Appendix A.
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