6.0 Kyoto Obligations

The emissions reductions reported in the Plan will result in Canada not meeting its Kyoto Protocol target of 6% below its 1990 emissions levels, as stated by the government. To achieve this target, Canada's emissions must average 558 Mt per year over the 2008—2012 compliance period.[23] As discussed above, Canada's compliance with the Kyoto Protocol will be based on actual emissions and not the regulatory emissions provided in the Plan. The KPIA requires the NRTEE to assess the likelihood that the proposed measures will enable Canada to meet its Kyoto obligations. According to the Plan, "Canada expects to be 802 Mt above its Kyoto Protocol target of 2792 Mt during the 2008 — 2012 period." There is a likelihood that this gap could be greater. As set out in Table 1, below, and based on the analysis above and in Appendix A, the gap between Canada's emissions and its Kyoto target could be 926 Mt over the Kyoto Period, or 185 Mt/year on average [24] due to the distinction between actual and regulatory emissions, as discussed above.

In order to be considered in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol in terms of total emissions, Canada's emissions must not exceed its total assigned commitment, except where this is offset through the use of approved flexibility mechanisms. It cannot be concluded with absolute certainty that Canada will not be in compliance until after 2012 when final, actual emissions are determined and any use of international flexibility mechanisms is reconciled.

Table 1: Annual Allowable Units, Projected Emissions, and Implied Excess Emissions over the First Commitment Period (2008-2012) Under the Kyoto Protocol Based on NRTEE Analysis [25]

<< Previous page | TOC | Next page >>

__________________________________

23 This target could also be expressed as a 160 Mt reduction relative to 2006 levels or, based on Environment Canada's business as usual forecast from the Plan, as a reduction of 199 Mt relative to business as usual.

24 This calculation assumes that 32.6, 36.6, and 37.7 Mt of actual emissions will be offset in regulatory terms by contributions to the Technology Fund in 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively and that 15Mt of credits for early action will be allocated and used to offset 15Mt of actual emissions during the same period. This is based on the Environment Canada assumption that the Technology Fund will represent the cheapest option for firms to comply with the requirements of the Regulatory Framework for Air Emissions.

25 The numbers in this Table are from NRTEE estimates of likely actual emissions. As described in Section 5.0, they are calculated from the KPIA integrated modelling forecast less compliance through the Technology Fund and credit for early action, which would not result in actual physical reductions within the short-term Kyoto period.